2025年8月经济数据点评：固定投资继续降速

Industrial Production - In August, the industrial added value for large-scale industries grew by 5.2% year-on-year, slightly down from 5.7% in July, but still above 5%[4] - Manufacturing value added increased by 5.7%, outpacing overall industrial growth by 0.5 percentage points, reinforcing its core support role[4] - High-tech manufacturing saw a significant expansion with a year-on-year growth of 9.3%, indicating strong momentum in emerging industries[4] Fixed Asset Investment - From January to August, national fixed asset investment grew by 0.5% year-on-year, a notable decline from 1.6% in the first seven months, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.20% in August[4] - Excluding real estate development investment, the cumulative growth rate reached 4.2%, highlighting real estate as a major drag on overall investment[4] - Private fixed asset investment fell by 2.3%, worsening from a 1.5% decline in the previous period, indicating weak vitality in private investment[4] Real Estate Sector - Real estate development investment dropped by 12.9% year-on-year from January to August, with the decline accelerating from 12.0% in the first seven months[4] - In August alone, real estate investment fell by 19.5%, marking the largest monthly decline of the year[4] - New housing starts decreased by 19.5% year-on-year, reflecting developers' cautious long-term outlook despite a slight narrowing of the decline compared to mid-year[4] Consumer Spending - In August, retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year, a 0.3 percentage point decrease from the previous month[5] - The "trade-in" policy positively impacted sales, with retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment rising by 14.3% and furniture by 18.6%[5] - Service retail sales grew by 5.1% year-on-year from January to August, continuing to outpace goods retail sales, driven by strong demand in tourism and cultural entertainment[5] Economic Outlook - The economy is expected to maintain recovery momentum, with GDP growth projected to reach around 5% for the year, despite anticipated slower growth in the third quarter compared to the second[5] - Risks include the potential slower-than-expected recovery of domestic demand, which could impact overall economic performance[5]