集装箱产业风险管理日报-20250916

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Today, the container shipping index (European line) futures opened with a significant upward movement and then continued to fluctuate upwards. Except for EC2510, all other contracts saw varying degrees of price increases. The short - term price of the futures is likely to continue a volatile trend, and intraday short - term operations are recommended for unilateral trading. The partial contract price correction today is due to a short - term rebound from last week's low and the emotional bullishness caused by Hamas suspending negotiations with Israel [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 EC Risk Management Strategy Advice - For position management, if one has existing positions but the shipping capacity is full or the booked cargo volume is poor, and is worried about a decline in freight rates (long spot exposure), to prevent losses, one can short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) to lock in profits at an entry range of 1250 - 1350 [2]. - For cost management, if shipping companies increase blank sailings or the peak season is approaching, and one wants to book cabins according to orders (short spot exposure), to prevent an increase in transportation costs due to rising freight rates, one can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at an entry range of 1000 - 1100 to determine the booking cost in advance [2]. 3.2 Core Contradiction - The container shipping index (European line) futures showed an upward trend today. In the EC2510 contract, long positions decreased by 7 to 26383, short positions increased by 406 to 27849, and trading volume decreased by 8913 to 21070 (bilateral). The price correction of some contracts is due to a short - term rebound from last week's low and the emotional impact of Hamas suspending negotiations with Israel. The SCFIS European line's decline has slightly converged, and the futures price is likely to continue a volatile trend. Unilateral operations are best done intraday [3]. 3.3 Bullish Interpretation - On the 14th local time, Hamas senior official Tahir Nunu stated that Hamas has suspended negotiations with Israel regarding a cease - fire in the Gaza Strip and the exchange of detainees [4]. 3.4 Futures Basis and Price - The futures underlying SCFIS European line continues to decline. The basis of EC2510 on September 16 was 277.14 points, with a daily decrease of 5.50 points and a weekly decrease of 6.32 points. For example, the closing price of EC2510 was 1163.1 points, with a daily increase of 0.48% and a weekly decrease of 9.35% [5]. 3.5 Spot Freight Quotes - According to the "European Line Freight Rate Note" on September 22, the total quote for 20GP of Maersk's ships departing from Shanghai to Rotterdam was $997, and for 40GP was $1669, both remaining the same as the previous period [8]. 3.6 Global Freight Rate Index - The SCFIS European line index was 1440.24 points, a decrease of 126.22 points (- 8.06%) from the previous value; the SCFIS US - West line index was 1349.84 points, an increase of 369.36 points (37.67%) [9]. 3.7 Global Major Port Waiting Times - On September 15, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port was 1.652 days, an increase of 0.173 days from the previous day; the waiting time at Shanghai Port was 1.632 days, an increase of 0.014 days [14]. 3.8 Ship Speed and Waiting Ships in Suez Canal - On September 15, the average speed of 8000 + container ships was 15.666 knots, a decrease of 0.14 knots from the previous day; the number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchor was 10, a decrease of 1 from the previous day [23].