航运日报：关注下周马士基10月第一周开价情况-20250916

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 10 - month contract is mainly short - allocated in the off - season, with its valuation continuing to be revised downwards. The uncertainty lies in the second half of October. The 12 - month contract still follows the off - peak and peak season pattern, and recently, one can bet on the price increase expectation in November. The far - month contracts should pay attention to the recent Trump tariff risk [4][5][6]. - The strategy includes a weakly fluctuating main contract for unilateral trading and shorting the 10 - month contract on rallies for arbitrage [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Price - As of September 15, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index Europe route futures is 83,189.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 31,407.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts are 1516.90, 1253.90, 1431.90, 1603.70, 1163.10, and 1656.20 respectively [6]. 2. Spot Price - Online quotes from various shipping alliances are provided, such as Gemini Cooperation (Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam prices in weeks 38 and 39, HPL - SPOT prices in late September and early October), MSC + Premier Alliance (MSC, ONE, HMM, YML prices), and Ocean Alliance (CMA, EMC, OOCL prices). As of late September, the central price has dropped to around 1500 - 1600 US dollars/FEU (equivalent to about 1050 - 1120 points of SCFIS) [1][2][4]. - On September 12, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1154 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 2370 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 3307 US dollars/FEU. On September 15, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1440.24 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1349.84 points [6]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - From September to November 2025, the weekly average capacity of China - European basic ports shows different levels. There are 15 blank sailings and 1 TBN in October and 3 blank sailings and 6 TBN in November. HPL has announced two additional vessels in October [3]. - As of September 14, 2025, 186 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.495 million TEU. Among them, 59 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 886,000 TEU, and 8 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 176,880 TEU [7]. 4. Supply Chain - Geopolitical events, such as Israel's stance on the Hamas leadership in Qatar, may have an impact on the supply chain [2]. 5. Demand and European Economy - The demand in the US line is weak, with the US NRF estimating that the container import demand in the US from September to December will decline by about 20% compared with the same period in 2024. In the off - season of shipping, the demand is generally low, but in the fourth quarter, due to Western holidays, the shipping volume usually remains at a high level [5].