进口玉米拍卖增量，期货跌幅较大

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The corn market is expected to have a short - term bearish and long - term bullish pattern, with short - term attention on selling opportunities on rallies and potential reverse arbitrage opportunities [1][9]. - The protein meal market is expected to continue range - bound trading, with long positions held at 2900 - 2910 and opportunities to add positions on dips. Oil mills are advised to sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises are suggested to buy basis contracts or price at low levels [7]. - The hog market is expected to have low - level oscillations in the short term, and the supply pressure may gradually weaken in 2026 if the de - capacity policy is effectively implemented [9]. - The natural rubber market is expected to be oscillating and bullish in the short term, while the synthetic rubber market is expected to continue its oscillating trend [11][13]. - The cotton market is expected to have short - term range - bound trading, with support at 13800 yuan/ton and resistance at 14300 yuan/ton [14]. - The sugar market is expected to be bearish in the long term and may stop falling and rebound in the short term, with a trading range of 5500 - 5750 [16]. - The pulp market is expected to have an oscillating trend, with an expected trading range of 4950 - 5300 [17]. - The offset paper market is recommended for range - bound operations between 4000 - 4500 [18]. - The log market is expected to stop falling and stabilize in September, with a possible range of 780 - 840 [20]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1行情观点 3.1.1油脂 - Despite the bearish USDA September supply - demand report, the domestic oils and fats oscillated strongly on the previous day. The market is focused on the Fed's September interest - rate meeting, and the crude oil price was strong due to regional tensions. - The US soybean yield may be further revised down, and the domestic soybean oil inventory may peak. The Malaysian palm oil may continue to accumulate inventory in September, and the demand for palm oil in Indonesian biodiesel may be better than expected. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is slowly declining but still high year - on - year. - In the short term, pay attention to the sustainability of the upward trend, and in the medium term, the probability of price increases is high [5]. 3.1.2蛋白粕 - Internationally, the Fed is likely to cut interest rates, and the US - China talks were held in Spain. The US soybean yield was slightly revised down, and the end - inventory consumption ratio increased slightly. The probability of La Nina from September to November is 55%. The Brazilian soybean planting progress should be monitored. - Domestically, the double - meal prices fell due to the neutral - bearish supply - demand report and the US - China talks. In the short term, the oil mills' soybean meal inventory continues to accumulate, and the feed enterprises' physical inventory is slightly increasing. In the long term, there is no supply gap before December, and the demand for soybean meal may increase steadily [7]. 3.1.3玉米及淀粉 - The domestic corn prices showed mixed trends. The supply side is affected by the active selling of old - crop grains and the expected new - crop harvest pressure. The demand side sees some support from the replenishment of small - scale feed enterprises in the south. - In the short term, there are opportunities to sell on rallies and potential reverse arbitrage opportunities. In the long term, the market is not pessimistic [1][9]. 3.1.4生猪 - In the short term, the supply of hogs is abundant, and the price is under pressure. In the medium term, the pig supply is expected to increase. In the long term, if the de - capacity policy is effective, the supply pressure will gradually weaken in 2026 [9]. 3.1.5天然橡胶 - After a sharp decline last week, the rubber price rebounded. The supply side needs to monitor the production increase and inventory reduction. The demand side needs to observe the downstream procurement intention. - In the short term, the price is expected to be oscillating and bullish [11]. 3.1.6合成橡胶 - The BR futures rebounded slightly after stabilizing. It mainly follows the trend of natural rubber and is supported by the short - term tight supply of butadiene. - In the short term, the price may be oscillating and bullish [13]. 3.1.7棉花 - Internationally, the global cotton production may not decline significantly. Domestically, the commercial inventory is low, the demand is improving, and the new - cotton opening price is expected to be higher than last year. - In the short term, the price is expected to be range - bound [14]. 3.1.8白糖 - In the long term, the global sugar market supply is expected to be loose, and the price is under downward pressure. In the short term, the fundamental supply is also relatively loose, but the price may stop falling and rebound [16]. 3.1.9纸浆 - After reaching a new low, the pulp futures rebounded. The market sentiment is stable, and the demand is average. The supply side has some new increments, and the demand side is in the seasonal peak season but with a weak upward - transmission effect. - The price is expected to oscillate in the low - level range [17]. 3.1.10双胶纸 - The double - offset paper futures have been oscillating around the listing price of 4200 yuan/ton. The price is at a neutral level, and there is a lack of clear upward or downward drivers. - It is recommended for range - bound operations between 4000 - 4500 [18]. 3.1.11原木 - The log market has been affected by the weak reality and the expectation of the peak season. The inventory is decreasing, and the demand is expected to increase in September. - The price is expected to stop falling and stabilize [20]. 3.2品种数据监测 The report only lists various agricultural product categories such as "油脂油料", "蛋白粕", "玉米、淀粉", etc., but no specific data monitoring content is provided. 3.3评级标准 - The rating standards include "偏强" (expected increase > 2 standard deviations), "震荡偏强" (expected increase of 1 - 2 standard deviations), "震荡" (expected increase/decrease within ±1 standard deviation), "震荡偏弱" (expected decrease of 1 - 2 standard deviations), and "偏弱" (expected decrease > 2 standard deviations). - The time period is the next 2 - 12 weeks, and the standard deviation is calculated as 1 - time standard deviation = 500 - trading - day rolling standard deviation/current price [177].