补库逻辑加强、市场情绪改善，板块品种价格仍有上?空间

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials sector is "oscillating bullishly" [6]. Core View of the Report - With the deepening of the traditional peak season, steel demand is expected to improve, driving the restocking demand from the bottom - up of the industrial chain. Coupled with the boost from overseas macro and domestic market sentiment, there is still room for the sector to oscillate upward before the holiday [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Situation - The overall black building materials sector oscillated strongly during the day session and night session yesterday due to the approaching Fed rate cut and the introduction of domestic industry growth - stabilizing plans, which led to a resurgence of the "anti - involution" trading sentiment. The restocking logic before the National Day strengthened, benefiting furnace materials and plate products with strong demand, while building materials were still dragged down by poor demand [1][2]. 2. Iron Element - Iron Ore: Brazilian port maintenance impact weakened, and shipping volume returned to normal. Demand recovered to a high level, but the low inventory in factories and the need to verify the peak - season demand for rebar limited its upside. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [2]. - Scrap Steel: Its fundamental contradictions are not prominent. It follows the movement of finished products and is expected to maintain an oscillating trend in the short term [2]. 3. Carbon Element - Coke: With the approaching National Day, steel mills will start pre - holiday stockpiling. The cost support is strong due to the resurgence of the anti - involution sentiment, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [2]. - Coking Coal: After the coal mines resume production, they are expected to maintain a stable production rhythm. The mid - and downstream pre - holiday restocking has started in advance, and with the support of macro policies, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [2]. 4. Alloys - Manganese Silicon: In the short term, the cost and peak - season expectations support the futures price, but the long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price center is likely to decline [3]. - Silicon Iron: The stable prices of semi - coke and electricity costs support the price in the short term. However, the long - term supply - demand relationship will be looser, and the price is under downward pressure [3]. 5. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The current demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the mid - stream destocking, there may be oscillations. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price is expected to decline if it returns to fundamental trading [3]. - Soda Ash: The supply surplus situation remains unchanged. After the futures price decline, the spot trading volume increased slightly. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future, and the price center will decline in the long term [3]. 6. Individual Product Analysis - Steel: The cost support is strong, but the supply - demand situation is weak. The inventory is at a moderately high level, and the fundamental contradiction of rebar is more prominent than that of hot - rolled coils. It is recommended to consider the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on rebar [8]. - Iron Ore: The overseas shipping has recovered, and the port inventory has slightly decreased. The demand is at a high level, but the peak - season demand for rebar needs further verification. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [9]. - Scrap Steel: The supply has slightly increased, and the demand has also increased slightly. The inventory is at a low level, and the price is expected to oscillate [10]. - Coke: The second round of price cuts has been implemented. The supply is still relatively loose, but the cost support is strong. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [11]. - Coking Coal: The supply is relatively stable, and the downstream has started restocking. With the support of macro policies, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [11][12]. - Glass: The current demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the mid - stream destocking, there may be oscillations. In the long term, it needs market - oriented capacity reduction, and the price is expected to decline [12]. - Soda Ash: The downstream restocking has driven the upstream destocking. The supply surplus situation remains unchanged. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future, and the price center will decline in the long term [15]. - Manganese Silicon: The cost and peak - season expectations support the price in the short term, but the long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price center is likely to decline [15][16]. - Silicon Iron: The cost supports the price in the short term, but the long - term supply - demand relationship will be looser, and the price is under downward pressure [17]. 7. Index Information - Commodity Index: The comprehensive index, special index (including commodity 20 index, industrial products index, PPI commodity index) all showed an upward trend on September 15, 2025 [99]. - Plate Index: The steel industry chain index rose by 0.87% on September 15, 2025, and the increase in the past 5 days was 1.17%, while the decrease in the past month was 0.62%, and the decrease from the beginning of the year was 3.87% [100].