能源化策略：地缘拉升油价，国内宏观提振化

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Oscillating weakly [3][7] - Asphalt: Oscillating weakly [3][8] - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating weakly [3][8] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating weakly [3][11] - PX: Oscillating [12] - PTA: Oscillating [12][13] - Pure benzene: Oscillating [13][15] - Styrene: Oscillating [15][17] - MEG: Oscillating [17][19] - Short fiber: Oscillating [19][20] - Bottle chip: Oscillating [20][21] - Methanol: Oscillating [23][26] - Urea: Oscillating weakly [24] - LLDPE: Oscillating [27] - PP: Oscillating [28][29] - PL: Oscillating [29] - PVC: Oscillating [31] - Caustic soda: Oscillating [31][32] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical factors have led to a slight increase in oil prices, and domestic macroeconomic factors have boosted the prices of chemical products. The future trend depends on whether there are actual supply reduction policies [1][2][3]. - The prices of chemical products have been lifted by macro - sentiment, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether there will be actual supply reduction in the later stage [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Outlook - Crude oil: The port attacked on September 12 has resumed operation, but refineries are still frequently attacked, and the international diesel market supply is tightening. Under the background of OPEC + accelerating production increase, the supply - demand pattern shows a weak reality. The oil price is expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances [7]. - Asphalt: The 3500 position of options has concentrated holdings, and the battle between bulls and bears is fierce. The high valuation of asphalt is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [8]. - High - sulfur fuel oil: Russian fuel oil exports have reached a record high, and the demand outlook has deteriorated. Geopolitical upgrades have only a short - term impact on prices [8]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: It follows the oscillation of crude oil. It is facing supply increase and demand decline, and is expected to maintain low - valuation operation [11]. - PX: Supply has reached a high level. In the short term, it oscillates following costs and sentiment. It is necessary to pay attention to the support around 6600 [12]. - PTA: The return of maintenance devices has hindered the upward expectation of polyester load. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the support around 4600 [12][13]. - Pure benzene: Affected by styrene devices and macro factors, it rose on the day. If styrene maintenance occurs in September - October, the pattern will return to oversupply [13][15]. - Styrene: Affected by macro and device factors, it rebounded. In the short term, it may oscillate with a small rebound, but the inventory suppresses the increase [15][17]. - MEG: The port has a small inventory build - up, and it is difficult to see continuous build - up in the month. It is expected to oscillate in a range, and attention should be paid to the support around 4200 [17][19]. - Short fiber: It fluctuates following costs, and the demand is average. In the short term, it oscillates and sorts [19][20]. - Bottle chip: It has limited driving forces and follows passively. It oscillates, and the absolute value follows raw materials [20][21]. - Methanol: There are still contradictions between the near and far months. The futures price oscillates. There may be low - buying opportunities from September to October [23]. - Urea: Affected by spot quotes, the futures rebounded. The fundamentals are still loosely supplied, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [24]. - LLDPE: Supported by the previous low and downstream replenishment before festivals, it oscillates in the short term. The downward rhythm of oil price depends on geopolitical risks and overseas inventory accumulation [27]. - PP: Slightly rebounded due to increased maintenance and rising oil prices. It oscillates in the short term [28][29]. - PL: Supported by PDH maintenance, it oscillates in the short term [29]. - PVC: With weak reality and strong expectation, it oscillates. The pressure comes from long - term fundamentals, and the support comes from rising dynamic costs and improved market sentiment [31]. - Caustic soda: The spot price is under pressure to decline, and the futures is cautiously weak. The downward space is limited considering the alumina production expectation in the far - month [31][32]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - Inter - period spreads: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent (M1 - M2: 0.41, - 0.04), Dubai (M1 - M2: 1.75, 0.54), etc. [33] - Basis and warehouse receipts: Each variety has corresponding basis, change values, and warehouse receipt numbers, like asphalt (basis: 127, - 35; warehouse receipts: 67360) [34] - Inter - variety spreads: There are various inter - variety spread values and changes, for example, 1 - month PP - 3MA: - 222, 2 [36] 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although specific content for each variety (methanol, urea, styrene, etc.) is mentioned, no detailed and summarizable data or analysis is provided in the given text.