中信期货晨报：商品期货大面积飘红，黑色系多数收涨-20250916

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For overseas markets, focus on the Fed's interest - rate meeting on the early morning of September 18. The market expects a 25bp rate cut, with a small probability of a 50bp cut. US inflation data and the Fed's personnel issues boost the rate - cut expectation [8]. - Domestically, observe the progress of physical work in Q4 and changes in financial market liquidity. Special bond issuance supports infrastructure demand, but there are risks of more funds used for debt reduction. The demand pulse for commodity consumption may be postponed to the end of Q4. Investors should also focus on the process of household deposit transfer and inflation changes [8]. - The improvement of US dollar liquidity is a medium - term trend, which is beneficial for risk assets. Domestically, as the process of household deposit transfer indicates a rising risk preference, investors are recommended to focus on liquidity - sensitive risk assets such as CSI 1000 stock index futures, non - ferrous metals, oilseeds, and precious metals. Also, pay attention to the Q4 allocation opportunities of Chinese bonds [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas Macro: The Fed's interest - rate meeting on September 18 is crucial. Market expects rate cuts due to inflation data and personnel issues [8]. - Domestic Macro: Special bond issuance supports infrastructure, but there are risks of more funds for debt reduction. The demand for commodity consumption may be postponed. Investors should focus on household deposit transfer and inflation [8]. - Asset Views: Improvements in US dollar liquidity benefit risk assets. Domestically, focus on liquidity - sensitive risk assets and Q4 Chinese bond allocation opportunities [8]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - Stock Index Futures: Use a dumbbell structure to deal with market divergence. Short - term judgment is oscillation due to the attenuation of incremental funds [10]. - Stock Index Options: Continue the hedging and defensive strategy. Short - term judgment is oscillation due to potential deterioration of option market liquidity [10]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with concerns about tariff, supply, and monetary policy surprises [10]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Dovish expectations drive prices up. Short - term judgment is oscillatory rise, with attention on US fundamentals, Fed policy, and global equity market trends [10]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe: Focus on the rate of freight decline. Short - term judgment is oscillation as the peak season fades and there is no upward driving force [10]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel: Steel mill profits shrink, and supply - demand is weak. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production [10]. - Iron Ore: Iron - water production is high, and port inventory slightly increases. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on overseas mine production, domestic iron - water production, and other factors [10]. - Coke: Supply increases significantly, and the second - round price cut starts. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on steel mill production, coking cost, and macro sentiment [10]. - Coking Coal: Supply has basically recovered, and the spot market is cautious. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on steel mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [10]. - Silicon Iron: Supply - demand tends to be loose, and the market is under pressure. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on raw material cost and steel procurement [10]. - Manganese Silicon: Supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and there is limited upward driving force. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on cost price and overseas quotes [10]. - Glass: Supply slightly increases, and expectations are still volatile. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on spot sales [10]. - Soda Ash: Middle - stream inventory is decreasing. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on soda ash inventory [10]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: Supply of recycled copper is tight, and copper prices are strong. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on supply disruptions, domestic policies, and Fed policies [10]. - Alumina: Spot prices are weakening, and warehouse receipts are increasing. Short - term judgment is oscillatory decline, with attention on ore production and electrolytic aluminum复产 [10]. - Aluminum: Inventory is accumulating, and aluminum prices are falling. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [10]. - Zinc: Inventory is accumulating, and zinc prices are weak. Short - term judgment is oscillatory decline, with attention on macro risks and zinc - ore supply [10]. - Lead: Social inventory slightly decreases, and lead prices are oscillating. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on supply disruptions and battery exports [10]. - Nickel: LME nickel inventory increases significantly, and nickel prices fluctuate widely. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on macro, geopolitical, and Indonesian policy risks [10]. - Stainless Steel: Warehouse receipts are slightly accumulating, and the market is weak. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on Indonesian policies and demand [10]. - Tin: Inventory in two markets slightly increases, and tin prices are oscillating. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on Wa State's复产 and demand improvement [10]. - Industrial Silicon: Supply is increasing, and silicon prices are capped. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installations [10]. - Lithium Carbonate: The peak - season supply - demand gap is less than expected, and prices are oscillating. Short - term judgment is oscillatory rise, with attention on demand, supply disruptions, and technological breakthroughs [10]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - Crude Oil: Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical disturbances exist. Short - term judgment is oscillatory decline, with attention on OPEC+ policies and Middle - East geopolitics [13]. - LPG: Valuation has been repaired, and focus on cost - end guidance. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on crude oil and overseas propane costs [13]. - Asphalt: Asphalt futures prices are below 3500. Short - term judgment is decline, with attention on sanctions and supply disruptions [13]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Production increase is disturbed by geopolitics, and prices first fall then rise. Short - term judgment is decline, with attention on geopolitics and crude oil prices [13]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Follows crude oil in wide - range oscillations. Short - term judgment is decline, with attention on crude oil prices [13]. - Methanol: There is a large contradiction between near - and far - month contracts. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [13]. - Urea: Returns to fundamentals and is under pressure. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on export and market sentiment [13]. - Ethylene Glycol: The market is pessimistic about future production capacity. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on coal, oil prices, port inventory, and device commissioning [13]. - PX: Fundamental drivers are limited, and prices follow costs. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on crude oil fluctuations, macro changes, and demand [13]. - PTA: Low inventory - holding willingness and sufficient spot liquidity suppress basis. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on crude oil, macro, and demand [13]. - Short - Fiber: Raw material support is average, and processing fees are recovering. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on downstream yarn - mill purchases and demand [13]. - Bottle Chip: Demand is in the off - season. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on enterprise production cuts and terminal demand [13]. - Propylene: Reduction in propane and PL commodity volume boosts prices. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on oil prices and domestic macro [13]. - PP: May find support near previous lows. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on oil prices and domestic/overseas macro [13]. - Plastic: Peak - season demand provides slight support. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on oil prices and domestic/overseas macro [13]. - Styrene: Market sentiment improves, and focus on policy details. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on oil prices, macro policies, and device dynamics [13]. - PVC: Weak reality and strong expectations. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on expectations, cost, and supply [13]. - Caustic Soda: Spot prices are falling. Short - term judgment is cautious decline, with attention on market sentiment, production, and demand [13]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Sector - Oils and Fats: Focus on the sustainability of the upward trend. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil supply - demand [13]. - Protein Meal: Prices fall after China - US - Spain talks. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on US soybean weather, domestic demand, and trade relations [13]. - Corn/Starch: Imported corn increases, and futures prices fall. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on demand, macro, and weather [13]. - Pig: Pig supply is abundant, and prices are oscillating at a low level. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on farming sentiment, epidemics, and policies [13]. - Rubber: Short - term support is strong. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on产区 weather, raw material prices, and macro changes [13]. - Synthetic Rubber: Continues the oscillatory trend. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on crude oil fluctuations [13]. - Cotton: Cotton prices are well - supported, and focus on new - cotton purchases. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on demand and inventory [13]. - Sugar: The short - term downward space is limited, and prices rebound. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on imports [13]. - Pulp: Rebounds after continuous decline, and it's better to wait and see. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on macroeconomic changes and US dollar - based quotes [13]. - Offset Paper: Lacks upward and downward drivers, and prices oscillate around the listing price. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on production - sales, education policies, and paper - mill operations [13]. - Log: New warehouse receipts are registered, and prices oscillate around 800. Short - term judgment is oscillation, with attention on shipment and dispatch volumes [13].