中国期货每日简报-20250916

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints On September 15, equity indices fell while CGB futures rose. Most commodities rose, with coke and coking coal leading the gains. The report also provides an analysis of the supply, demand, and inventory of coke, coking coal, and soybean meal, as well as a summary of macro news [11][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview On September 15, equity indices fell while CGB futures rose. Most commodities rose, with coke and coking coal leading the gains. The top three gainers in China's commodity futures were coke, coking coal, and egg, while the top three decliners were Chinese jujube, rapeseed meal, and SCFIS(Europe). In China's financial futures, equity indices fell, with IC decreasing by 0.5%, and CGB futures gained ground, with TL climbing 0.2% [11][14]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise - Coke: On September 15, coke increased by 4.6% to 1688.5 yuan/ton. After the second round of price declines, the spot price is expected to stabilize temporarily, and the futures market will remain volatile. The supply is expected to be loose with the second - round price cuts starting, and future growth is limited. The demand is supported by the recovery of steel mills' production, and the inventory situation shows that the middle and lower reaches purchase on demand [18][22]. - Coking Coal: On September 15, coking coal increased by 4.4% to 1187.5 yuan/ton. After the military parade, both supply and demand recovered rapidly, but the second - round of coke price cuts has started, leading to cautious spot transactions. The market is expected to operate in a volatile and strong - biased manner in the short term due to factors such as anti - involution and over - production inspections [25][29]. 3.1.3 Daily Drop - Soybean Meal & Rapeseed Meal: On September 15, soybean meal decreased by 1.5% to 3042 yuan/ton, and rapeseed meal decreased by 2.0% to 2504 yuan/ton. Macroeconomic expectations are bullish, but there is still room for a downward revision in U.S. soybean yield per unit area, and the progress of soybean sowing in South America is uncertain. Domestically, soybean meal inventories at oil mills have continued to rise, and physical inventories at feed enterprises have also increased slightly. The rigid demand for soybean meal may remain stable or increase moderately [34][36]. 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - The MFA responded to the media report about China's invitation to Trump for a visit to China, stating that the communication channels between China and the U.S. are unimpeded and it has no information to provide regarding the specific issue [39][40]. - NVIDIA violated the Anti - Monopoly Law, and SAMR decided to conduct further investigation [39][40]. - From January to August 2025, China's national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 0.5% year - on - year, while private fixed - asset investment dropped by 2.3% year - on - year. In August, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.20% month - on - month [39][40]. - In August, the value - added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% in real terms year - on - year and 0.37% month - on - month. From January to August, it rose by 6.2% year - on - year [39][40]. - From January to August, China's national real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year. In August, the sales prices of new and second - hand commercial housing in different - tier cities showed various trends [39][40]. - In August, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year - on - year, and from January to August, it grew by 4.6% year - on - year [39][40].