8月经济数据点评：利多易寻，债市难涨

Group 1 - The report indicates that in August 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales was 4.64%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points compared to July 2025, with the restaurant sector showing a growth rate of 3.60%, down 0.20 percentage points [1][2][18] - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value in August 2025 was 6.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from July, with traditional industries related to real estate, such as glass, cement, and crude steel, experiencing accelerated contraction [2][3][6] - Fixed asset investment in August 2025 showed a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 0.5%, a decline of 1.1 percentage points from July, with real estate investment down 12.9% year-on-year [2][6][12] Group 2 - Inflation remains weak, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August 2025 showing a year-on-year decline of 0.4 percentage points to -0.4%, primarily due to the drag from food prices, while core CPI increased to 0.9% [2][3][31] - The report highlights that the bond market is under pressure, with the current environment suggesting a phase of risk acceleration, and that the market may not have a favorable opportunity for long positions at this time [2][14][27] - The report notes that the real estate sector requires incremental policy support to stabilize, as recent trends show a downward adjustment in housing prices in first-tier cities [2][6][12]