流动性跟踪与地方债策略专题：四季度是否会有供给冲击？

Core Insights - The report discusses the impact of early allocation of local government debt limits for 2026, which is expected to be 3.12 trillion yuan, representing 60% of the 2025 limit, and emphasizes that this will not affect the supply of local debt in 2025 but will facilitate issuance in the first half of 2026 [1][14][16] - The report highlights the implementation of a debt replacement policy that adds 10 trillion yuan in local government debt resources, with 6 trillion yuan available for immediate use and 4 trillion yuan allocated for special new bonds, indicating a proactive approach to managing local government debt [2][16] - The report anticipates a significant reduction in net financing for government bonds in Q4 2025, potentially dropping to 2.51 trillion yuan, which is close to the levels seen in 2021, due to the early use of debt replacement quotas [2][16] Local Government Debt Strategy - As of September 21, 2025, the cumulative issuance of replacement bonds reached 1.9723 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 98.62%, while new general bonds and special bonds also showed significant progress [3][19][45] - The report notes that the implied tax rates of newly issued local bonds tend to revert to a range of 3%-6% after listing, with bonds issued at rates close to or above 6% offering a safety margin or excess returns [4][51] - The report indicates that insurance companies have been actively participating in the long-end of the local bond market, with daily net purchases around 9 billion yuan, suggesting a strong interest in long-term bonds [4][20][51] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The report outlines the recent trends in money market rates, noting that rates have fluctuated above and below policy rates, indicating a tightening liquidity environment as the end of the quarter approaches [8][21] - It highlights the pressures on the funding environment due to tax payment deadlines and the maturity of interbank certificates of deposit, which could impact liquidity in the short term [9][27] - The report mentions that the central bank has been cautious in its liquidity injections, with net daily operations remaining below 100 billion yuan, reflecting a more restrained monetary policy stance [8][21]