碳酸锂日评20250916：低位震荡-20250916

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - On September 15, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated upward. The current supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory pressure of upstream is not large. With the active promotion of the resumption of key mines, the expectation of supply contraction weakens. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate at a low level. The trading strategy is to short at high prices [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On September 15, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures increased compared with September 12. The trading volume was 482,790 lots (+71,801), and the open interest was 309,446 lots (+44). The registered warehouse receipts were 38,963 (+338) tons [1]. Spot Market - The spot market trading was weak, and the basis changed from premium to discount. The price of spodumene concentrate increased, while the mica price remained stable. The prices of some lithium - related products such as lithium phosphate aluminum stone and ternary precursor also changed to varying degrees [1]. Supply and Demand - Supply side: Last week, the output of lithium carbonate increased, and the output of lithium carbonate from different raw materials all increased. In September, the scheduled production of lithium carbonate increased. - Demand side: Last week, the output of lithium iron phosphate increased, the output of ternary materials decreased, and the output of power batteries increased. In August, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production slowed down, the 3C shipments were average, and the production of energy - storage batteries in September will increase [1]. Inventory - Social inventory decreased. Refineries and other sectors reduced inventory, while downstream sectors accumulated inventory. The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 1,580 tons compared with the previous week [1]. Important Information - On September 15, Savama Resources Plc, a London - listed company, said that after completing additional exploration work, the reserve estimate of its lithium mine project in northern Portugal increased by 40%. The pegmatite reserve of Barroso resources is now expected to exceed 39 million tons, up from the previous estimate of 28 million tons, becoming the largest pegmatite deposit in Europe [1].