【早间看点】印尼可能先将生柴掺混比例要求提高至45%25/26年度美豆期末库存预估为3.0亿蒲-20250916

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively analyzes the futures market, including overnight and spot prices of various commodities, fundamental information on crops, international and domestic supply - demand situations, macro - news, and capital flows. It also presents data on持仓 reports and potential policy changes that could impact the market. [1][2][9][16] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overnight Quotes - Overnight closing prices and percentage changes of various commodities are presented, such as the closing price of BMD's November palm oil at 4445.00, with a previous - day decline of 0.18%. Currency exchange rates and their changes are also provided, like the US dollar index at 97.60, up 0.08%. [1] 3.2 Spot Quotes - Spot prices, basis, and basis daily changes of different futures contracts in various regions are given. For example, the spot price of DCE's 2601 palm oil in North China is 9440, with a basis of 100 and no daily change. [2] 3.3 Important Fundamental Information - Weather and Crop Impact: US soybean - producing states will have slightly higher temperatures and slightly reduced precipitation from September 17 - 21. Midwest rainfall may delay corn and soybean harvests, while rainfall in Brazil's Mato Grosso state may help with soybean sowing. [3][6][7] - Supply - Demand Information: Global 2025/26 palm oil production, inventory, and export are forecasted. USDA also provides data on US soybean production, inventory, and other related balance sheet items. [9][10][12] - Policy and Market News: Indonesia may increase the biodiesel palm oil blending ratio to 45%. USDA will upgrade its export net sales report system. [10][13] 3.4 Macro News - International News: US September one - year inflation rate expectation is 4.8%, and the Michigan consumer confidence index is 55.4. Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to cut interest rates multiple times. [19] - Domestic News: China's central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations, and new loan interest rates are at historical lows. Chinese and US officials will hold economic and trade talks in Spain. [20][21] 3.5 Capital Flows On September 12, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 1.989 billion yuan, with different inflows and outflows in various sub - markets such as commodity, stock index, and treasury bond futures. [25] 3.6 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.