商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20250916

Report Overview - Report Date: September 16, 2025 - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy - Covered Commodities: Nickel, Stainless Steel, Lithium Carbonate, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Nickel: The contradiction in the smelting end is not prominent, and attention should be paid to the news - related risks at the ore end [2][4]. - Stainless Steel: There is a game between short - and long - term logics, and the steel price may fluctuate [2][4]. - Lithium Carbonate: The long - term demand may exceed expectations, and the price will fluctuate [2][11]. - Industrial Silicon: The "anti - involution" sentiment has fermented again [2][14]. - Polysilicon: The sentiment has reignited, and the futures price may continue to rise [2][15]. 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 121,980 yuan, and the trading volume was 145,101 lots. For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 12,950 yuan, and the trading volume was 138,100 lots. Other data such as prices of 1 imported nickel, Russian nickel premium, and nickel bean premium are also shown [4]. - Macro and Industry News: The Indonesian CNI nickel - iron project has entered the trial - production stage; environmental violations were found in the IMIP in Indonesia; Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period; some nickel - iron smelting plants in Indonesia have suspended production due to losses; the Indonesian government will be tough on illegal mining and has taken over some nickel - mining areas [4][5][7] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral view [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the 2511 contract was 72,680 yuan, and the trading volume was 482,790 lots. Other data such as the closing price, trading volume, and open interest of the 2601 contract, as well as prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, are presented [11]. - Macro and Industry News: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased slightly. The eight - department plan aims to boost automobile consumption, which is expected to drive the demand for lithium carbonate [12][13]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral view [13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Si2511 contract was 8,800 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 498,210 lots. For the PS2511 contract, the closing price was 53,545 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 237,981 lots. Data on inventory, cost, and profit are also provided [15]. - Macro and Industry News: A 10GW high - efficiency solar battery project in Karamay, Xinjiang, is seeking investment [16][17]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 1 (slightly bullish), and that of polysilicon is 2 (strongly bullish) [17].