乌克兰再度袭击俄能源设施，油价尝试反弹

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Amid geopolitical factors, oil prices are expected to oscillate within a high - end range. Supply - side contradictions are prominent, with geopolitical risk premiums offsetting OPEC+ production increases. On the demand side, seasonal weakness coexists with Asian resilience, resulting in insufficient one - way driving forces. Before the Fed meeting, market caution will suppress risk appetite. Short - term oil prices may continue to oscillate at the upper end of the range, with risks of impulse - type increases due to geopolitical conflicts and corrections under macro - negative pressure [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes - On September 15, 2025, crude oil futures prices showed differentiation. The SC main contract closed at 488.1 yuan/barrel, while WTI and Brent maintained narrow - range fluctuations. The SC - Brent spread dropped from $2.36/barrel on September 12 to - $0.15/barrel, indicating a significant narrowing of the domestic crude oil premium over the external market, even turning into a discount. The Brent - WTI spread strengthened to $4.77/barrel, a recent high, reflecting the support of geopolitical risks on European oil prices. The SC - WTI spread narrowed to $4.62/barrel, suggesting a compression of inter - regional arbitrage space [2]. 3.1.2 Supply, Demand, and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain - Supply: OPEC+ continues to increase production, but its complex policies and geopolitical situations (especially supply concerns caused by sanctions on Russia) have two - way disturbances on the crude oil supply side. India's oil imports in August reached $13.2 billion, showing the resilience of Asian demand. Its imports may partially replace sanctioned Russian oil, alleviating the supply gap pressure. The impact of marginal changes in US shale oil drilling activities and tightened financial conditions on production remains to be observed [3]. - Demand: US oil demand is undergoing a seasonal transformation, weakening after the summer travel peak. Refineries entering the maintenance season may suppress short - term demand. Shrinking refined oil profits and expectations of Fed rate hikes suppress speculative demand, and market concerns about economic slowdown persist. However, high - level imports from emerging markets such as India may partially offset the weakening demand pressure in Europe and the US [4]. - Inventory: Current inventory data for Cushing and US commercial crude oil has not been updated, but the risk of an oil market surplus (accumulation of OECD country inventories) is gradually increasing. The US strategic petroleum reserve release plan may further increase market supply. Geopolitical risks leading to the reshaping of trade flows may cause inventory fluctuations in non - OECD countries [5]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring 3.2.1 Crude Oil - Futures Prices: SC rose by 2.69% to 488.1 yuan/barrel, WTI increased by 0.27% to $62.77/barrel, and Brent rose by 0.88% to $67.47/barrel. - Spot Prices: Most spot prices showed changes, with Oman rising by 1.71% to $70.95/barrel and Dubai rising by 2.13% to $71.12/barrel. - Spreads: The SC - Brent spread increased by 806.67% to $1.06/barrel, the SC - WTI spread increased by 39.47% to $5.76/barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread increased by 9.1% to $4.70/barrel. - Other Assets: The US dollar index decreased by 0.30% to 97.32, the S&P 500 increased by 0.47% to 6,615.28 points, and the DAX index increased by 0.21% to 23,748.86 points. - Inventory and开工: US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 0.94% to 42,464.60 million barrels, Cushing inventory decreased by 1.51% to 2,385.70 million barrels, and the US refinery weekly operating rate increased by 0.64% to 94.90% [8]. 3.2.2 Fuel Oil - Futures Prices: FU rose by 3.02% to 2,799 yuan/ton, LU increased by 3.31% to 3,375 yuan/ton, and NYMEX fuel oil increased by 1.65% to 232.90 cents/gallon. - Spot and Paper Prices: Some prices remained unchanged, while the Russian M100 CIF price increased by 2.03% to $452/ton. - Spreads: The Chinese high - low sulfur spread increased by 4.73% to 576 yuan/ton, and the LU - Singapore FOB (0.5%S) spread increased by 5.53% to - 1,845 yuan/ton. - Inventory: Some inventory data showed decreases, such as Singapore's inventory decreasing by 3.18% to 2,652.80 million [9]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - Supply: On September 15, India's trade ministry reported that India's oil imports in August reached $13.2 billion and gold imports reached $514 million [10]. - Market Information: OPEC+ continues to increase production but with complex policies. Geopolitical situations have resurfaced. The crude oil price strengthened and consolidated last week with limited amplitude. This week, the market will continue to focus on geopolitical developments. Supply concerns caused by sanctions on Russia still support the oil market, but the seasonal transformation of US oil demand and the prospect of an oil market surplus will continue to exert pressure. With the Fed meeting approaching, the market is cautious, and crude oil prices are expected to remain in consolidation with continued volatility [12]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including those related to WTI, Brent, and SC contract prices and spreads, US crude oil production, refinery operating rates, and fuel oil prices and inventories, with data sources from WIND, EIA, iFinD, etc. [13][15][17]