如何理解8月经济数据：周度经济观察-20250916

Economic Overview - August economic data continues to reflect insufficient total demand, with investment, consumption, and exports all slowing down, indicating increasing downward pressure on the economy[2] - Industrial added value in August year-on-year was 5.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from July, showing a cooling in industrial production[4] - Fixed asset investment in August saw a year-on-year decline of 7.1%, a record low, with infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate investments continuing to decline[6] - Real estate investment in August decreased by 19.5% year-on-year, with new construction area down 20.3%[10] Financial Market Insights - Social financing growth in August was 8.8%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a potential peak in social financing for the year[14] - The average interest rate for new corporate loans in August was approximately 3.1%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, remaining at historical lows[14] - Market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates three times in 2025, with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut in September[28] Inflation and Policy Outlook - The U.S. CPI in August rose to 2.9%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, reflecting a controlled inflationary environment[23] - The core CPI remained stable at 3.1%, indicating limited upward pressure on core service prices[24] - The anticipated fiscal and monetary policy support in the U.S. is expected to bolster the stock market, which may continue to perform strongly[28]