8月经济数据点评：终端需求政策需加力

Demand-Side Analysis - In August, the growth rate of cyclical demand dropped to 2.2%, significantly lower than the nominal GDP growth rate of Q2, indicating a potential need for policy support[3] - The composite PMI output index averaged 50.3% in July and August, suggesting a possible policy response if it continues to decline in September[3] Policy Direction - Current low inflation suggests that policy measures should focus on boosting terminal demand without increasing future industrial supply[4] - Possible directions include promoting service consumption and advancing major projects from the 14th Five-Year Plan[4] Economic Data Overview - In August, industrial production growth was 5.2%, while the service sector's production index was 5.6%[5] - Retail sales growth year-on-year was 3.4%, down from 3.7% in the previous month[5] - Fixed asset investment saw a year-on-year decline of 7.1%, compared to a previous decline of 5.3%[5] Real Estate Sector - Real estate sales area decreased by 10.6% year-on-year in August, worsening from a 7.8% decline in July[5] - Real estate investment in August fell by 19.4% year-on-year, indicating ongoing sector challenges[5] Employment and Inflation - The urban survey unemployment rate rose to 5.3% in August, reflecting seasonal trends[26] - CPI was down 0.4% year-on-year, while PPI decreased by 2.9%, indicating deflationary pressures[24]