信用策略系列：二永交易择时再探讨

Group 1 - The report focuses on observing the trading sentiment of the "Er Yong" bonds, the divergence among major trading parties, and the potential trading space to provide reference for investors [2][14]. - The main trading parties for "Er Yong" bonds are securities companies and fund companies, with securities companies leading the trading activity [3][17][18]. - Fund companies exhibit a "buy high, sell low" characteristic in their trading behavior, while banks and insurance companies tend to have a stronger allocation attribute [3][19][21]. Group 2 - The trading heat of "Er Yong" bonds is measured by turnover rate and changes in turnover rate, with 2023 showing a range of 0.40%-1.60% and a central tendency around 0.50%-1.10% [5][43]. - The institutional divergence is calculated based on the absolute and relative strength of buy and sell orders, with values often exceeding 20% since July 2025, indicating increased difficulty in trading [6][54][58]. - The trading space is assessed by comparing the current credit spreads of "Er Yong" bonds to historical levels and similar-rated bonds, identifying potential recovery opportunities [7][62][63]. Group 3 - The "Er Yong" trading timing map combines indicators of trading heat, institutional divergence, and weighted transaction duration to observe trading signals [8][68]. - Currently, the trading heat for secondary capital bonds is low, with a dominant selling force, and while credit spreads have widened slightly, they remain at historically low levels, indicating unclear trading signals but potential recovery opportunities [8][69].