玉米淀粉日报-20250916

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US corn report has lowered the yield, and the US corn has rebounded. It may continue to lower the US corn yield later, with the US corn oscillating at the bottom. China has returned to a 15% tariff on US corn, with a total of 26% tariff within the quota, and a total of 22% tariff on US sorghum. The import profit of foreign corn is relatively high, and the import price from Brazil in December is 2,141 yuan. The flat - warehouse price at northern ports is stable, and the spot price in the northeast corn - producing area is stable. The supply in North China has increased, and the corn spot price has declined. The domestic breeding demand is still weak, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises is high. The corn spot price is expected to decline with the large - scale listing of new - season corn. [5][7] - The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and the corn spot price in Shandong is stable. The starch spot price in the northeast is also weak. The inventory of corn starch has decreased this week. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price is still strong. In the medium - to - long - term, due to weak starch demand, enterprises will be in a long - term loss state. The 01 starch is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term. [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - Futures盘面: For corn futures (C2601, C2605, C2509) and corn starch futures (CS2601, CS2605, CS2509), the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, trading volume change percentages, open interests, and open interest change percentages are presented. For example, C2601 closed at 2,155, down 1 with a decline of 0.05%, and its trading volume decreased by 2.35% [3]. - Spot and Basis: Corn spot prices are provided for different regions such as Qinggang, Jiajishenghua, etc., along with price changes and basis. Starch spot prices are given for enterprises like Longfeng, Zhongliang, etc., along with price changes and basis. For example, the current price of corn in Qinggang is 2,230 yuan with no price change, and the basis is - 26 [3]. - Price Spreads: Corn inter - delivery spreads (e.g., C01 - C05), starch inter - delivery spreads (e.g., CS01 - CS05), and cross - variety spreads (e.g., CS09 - C09) are presented, along with their price changes. For example, the C01 - C05 spread is - 70, up 3 [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - Corn: The US corn situation affects the domestic market. The import profit of foreign corn is high. The spot price in the north is stable, while the supply in North China increases and the price drops. The wheat - corn price difference expands, and wheat continues to substitute. The breeding demand is weak, and the inventory of feed enterprises is high. The corn spot price is expected to decline with the large - scale listing of new - season corn. It is expected that by the end of September, North China corn may reach 2,200 yuan/ton, and Heilongjiang may be below 2,100 yuan/ton [5][7]. - Starch: The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants increases, and the corn price is stable. The starch inventory decreases. The starch price depends on corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price is strong. In the medium - to - long - term, the starch demand is weak, and enterprises will be in a loss state. The 01 starch is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [8]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The US corn has support at 400 cents per bushel. It is advisable to mainly wait and see for 01 corn and try to go long after it stabilizes [9]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9]. 3.4 Corn Options - Option strategies suggest that enterprises with spot positions close out their short positions in corn call options, or short - term traders can try to sell on rallies and conduct rolling operations [12]. 3.5 Related Attachments - Multiple figures are provided, including those showing the spot prices of corn in different regions, the basis of corn 01 contracts, the 1 - 5 spreads of corn and corn starch, the basis of corn starch 01 contracts, and the spreads of corn starch 01 contracts [14][15][19]