光大期货煤化工商品日报-20250916

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Bullish [2] - Soda Ash: Bullish [2] - Glass: Bullish [2] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Urea futures prices oscillated strongly on Monday, with the main 01 contract closing at 1683 yuan/ton, up 0.96% day-on-day. The spot market was mostly stable, with partial areas still slightly down 10 - 20 yuan/ton. Some maintenance enterprises resumed production, and urea supply increased slightly. Demand improved after prices fell to low levels, but the market remained in a state of strong supply and weak demand, and there were still many restrictions on the upside of futures prices. It is not recommended to chase the rise excessively [2]. - Soda ash futures prices oscillated strongly on Monday, with the main 01 contract closing at 1308 yuan/ton, up 1.71%. The spot market quotes were mostly stable, with individual areas slightly rising. The supply level was still volatile, and demand improved. The fundamentals improved slightly, but the overall driving force was still limited. The external macro - sentiment warmed up, which boosted the market sentiment [2]. - Glass futures prices oscillated strongly on Monday, with the main 01 contract closing at 1207 yuan/ton, up 2.72%. The spot market was weak. The daily melting volume of the glass industry remained stable. The demand follow - up was in a good state and may further increase. The futures price trend became stronger, and the phased upward trend was basically confirmed [2]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Information Urea - On September 15, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 8613, a decrease of 234 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 49 [5]. - On September 15, the daily output of the urea industry was 19.12 tons, an increase of 0.33 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 0.11 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 81.73%, a decrease of 3.51 percentage points from 85.24% in the same period last year [5]. - On September 15, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions were as follows: Shandong 1640 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; Henan 1640 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; Hebei 1670 yuan/ton, unchanged; Anhui 1650 yuan/ton, unchanged; Jiangsu 1640 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; Shanxi 1540 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. Soda Ash & Glass - On September 15, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 6250, a decrease of 666 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 3846. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 1605, a decrease of 459 from the previous trading day [7]. - On September 15, the spot prices of soda ash were as follows: North China light soda 1200 yuan/ton, heavy soda 1300 yuan/ton; Central China light soda 1150 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, heavy soda 1250 yuan/ton; East China light soda 1130 yuan/ton, heavy soda 1250 yuan/ton; South China light soda 1350 yuan/ton, heavy soda 1400 yuan/ton; Southwest light soda 1200 yuan/ton, heavy soda 1300 yuan/ton; Northwest light soda 980 yuan/ton, heavy soda 980 yuan/ton [7]. - On September 15, the daily operating rate of the soda ash industry was 85.16%, down from 86.98% the previous working day [8]. - On September 15, the average price of the float glass market was 1160 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton day - on - day. The daily output of the industry was 16.02 tons, unchanged day - on - day [8]. Chart Analysis - The report includes charts of the closing prices, basis, trading volume and open interest, spreads, and spot price trends of urea and soda ash futures, as well as the price differences between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash [10][12][14][18][20]. All chart data sources are iFind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [22].