光大期货软商品日报-20250916

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For cotton, on Monday, ICE US cotton fell 0.01% to 66.82 cents per pound, and CF601 rose 0.4% to 13,885 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest decreased by 8,077 lots to 498,300 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was about 15,167 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan from the previous day, and the national average cotton market price was 15,249 yuan per ton, up 1 yuan. The market is focused on the macro - level with the Fed's September interest - rate meeting approaching and a nearly 100% probability of a 25 - BP rate cut. The USDA report made minor adjustments to US cotton data. New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities in China, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest this year. The hand - picked cotton price remains relatively firm, and the opening price may be between 6.2 - 6.5 yuan per kilogram, supporting the Zhengzhou cotton futures price. The August social retail data showed a slowdown in the year - on - year growth rate, but the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles increased by 3.1%. Overall, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price has some support below but weak upward momentum, and is expected to be in a short - term oscillatory pattern [2]. - For sugar, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) expects Brazil's 2025 sugarcane planting area to be 9.358284 million hectares, up 1.5% from last month's forecast and 1.3% from last year, and the sugarcane output to be 695.491113 million tons, up 0.1% from last month's forecast but down 1.6% from last year. The spot quotes of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar - making groups remained stable, and only the Guangdong Jinling processing sugar factory raised its price by 10 yuan per ton. The raw sugar market was suppressed by the expectation of a bumper harvest. In the domestic market, the peak of spot market stocking has passed, and sales are now stable. The sugar - cane crushing in Inner Mongolia is delayed due to weather. The futures market rebounded slightly following the raw sugar, but caution is needed regarding the upside due to the supply from multiple sugar sources. Attention should be paid to the August import data [2]. Group 3: Summary by Sections 1. Daily Data Monitoring - For cotton, the 1 - 5 contract spread was 35 yuan, down 5 yuan; the main contract basis was 1364 yuan, down 24 yuan. The Xinjiang spot price was 15,167 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan, and the national average was 15,249 yuan per ton, up 1 yuan [3]. - For sugar, the 1 - 5 contract spread was 24 yuan, down 1 yuan; the main contract basis was 386 yuan, down 9 yuan. The Nanning spot price was 5,890 yuan per ton, unchanged, and the Liuzhou spot price was 5,935 yuan per ton, unchanged [3]. 2. Market Information - On September 15, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 4,899, down 118 from the previous trading day, with 2 valid forecasts [4]. - On September 15, the cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 15,167 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,217 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,282 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,300 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [4]. - On September 15, the yarn comprehensive load was 50, up 0.1 from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 26.4, down 0.1; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 52.5, up 0.5; and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 29.5, down 0.3 [4]. - On September 15, the Nanning sugar spot price was 5,890 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day, and the Liuzhou sugar spot price was 5,935 yuan per ton, unchanged [4]. - On September 15, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 11,325, down 274 from the previous trading day, with 0 valid forecasts [5]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts related to cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and price index of cotton, as well as the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of sugar [7][10][15][18]. 4. Research Team - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. She has won many awards [20]. - Zhang Linglu, a master of accounting and finance from the University of Bristol, is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures, responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea and soda ash glass [21]. - Sun Chengzhen, a financial master from Yunnan University, is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures, mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [22].