瑞达期货沪铅产业日报-20250916

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to be stable, demand will recover slightly, and with the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, it is recommended to go long on lead prices at low levels [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract is 17,055 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan; the 11 - 12 month contract spread of Shanghai lead is -5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the Shanghai lead open interest is 90,294 lots, down 1,118 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is -1,874 lots, up 1,770 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 59,417 tons, down 68 tons; the SHFE inventory is 66,561 tons, down 273 tons; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 2,001.5 dollars/ton, down 16 dollars; the LME lead inventory is 225,625 tons, down 3,950 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,170 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the lead main contract is -105 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; the LME lead (0 - 3) spread is -47.54 dollars/ton, down 6.38 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan is 16,296 yuan; the WBMS monthly supply - demand balance of lead is -1.87 million tons; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,870 yuan/ton; the number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68, down 50; the capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 37.88%, up 0.61%; the monthly output of recycled lead is 22.42 million tons, down 6.75 million tons; the average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 81.52%, down 1.04%; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.59 million tons, down 0.19 million tons; the processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports is -90 dollars/kiloton; the ILZSG monthly lead supply - demand balance is 16.4 thousand tons, up 48.8 thousand tons; the ILZSG global lead ore monthly output is 399.7 thousand tons, down 3.7 thousand tons; the monthly lead ore import volume is 11.97 million tons, up 2.48 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the monthly refined lead export volume is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average daily price of waste batteries is 10,114.29 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average weekly domestic processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory is 370 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of lead - acid batteries is 41,450 thousand units, down 425 thousand units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, 2% antimony content) is 20,075 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the Shenwan tertiary - industry index of batteries is 2,149.88 points, down 23.77 points; the monthly automobile output is 2.51 million vehicles, down 0.2986 million vehicles; the monthly new - energy vehicle output is 1.647 million vehicles, up 0.073 million vehicles [2] 3.6 Industry News - The US plans to include more steel and aluminum derivatives in the tariff scope; Trump calls for companies to change from quarterly to semi - annual reports, and the NASDAQ CEO supports it; the US plans to expand the strategic uranium reserve; India and the US will hold trade talks in New Delhi on Tuesday; the US military launched a second strike against Venezuelan drug traffickers; there is no evidence that Fed Governor Cook violated the main residence reporting regulations; former Fed official Brad is "very interested" in becoming the Fed chairman; Musk bought more than 2.5 million Tesla shares in a single day [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - Macroscopically, the US August non - farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, far lower than the expected 75,000, the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has increased. On the supply side, primary lead production has recovered, while recycled lead production is restricted by environmental inspections and low waste battery recycling efficiency. On the demand side, the demand for lead - acid batteries is gradually warming up, but the overall demand has not yet increased significantly. In terms of inventory, foreign lead inventory has decreased, domestic inventory has increased, and the overall inventory remains unchanged. Overall, the supply of Shanghai lead is expected to be stable, demand will recover slightly, and lead prices are expected to be supported [2]