Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-16 09:29Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Shanghai Zinc Industry Daily Report [2] - Report Date: September 16, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Fuhui [3] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03123381 [3] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0019878 [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core View - The macro - economic situation in China shows characteristics of "sluggish industry, weak investment, and tepid consumption", leading to an increased expectation of a new round of policy easing. On the fundamental side, domestic and foreign zinc ore imports have increased, the growth of zinc ore processing fees has slowed, and the sulfuric acid price has risen significantly, giving smelters a large profit margin and increasing production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and the supply growth has accelerated. However, overseas zinc ore is tight, resulting in an expanding import loss, a decrease in imported zinc inflows, and an approaching export window. On the demand side, the downstream market shows a situation of "not prosperous in the peak season", with stable and slightly rising operating rates of processing enterprises. Recently, zinc prices have rebounded, downstream purchases are made on - demand, and the trading atmosphere is dull. Domestically, social inventories are increasing, and the spot premium remains low; overseas, LME inventories are significantly decreasing, and the spot premium is rising, which supports zinc prices. Technically, the position is decreasing, the price is adjusting, the bullish sentiment is weakening, and it faces resistance at MA60. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips [3]. Group 4: Market Data Summary Futures Market - Shanghai Zinc Main Contract Closing Price: 22,255 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan [3] - 10 - 11 Month Contract Spread of Shanghai Zinc: - 10 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [3] - LME Three - Month Zinc Quote: 2,982 US dollars/ton, up 26 US dollars [3] - Total Shanghai Zinc Positions: 214,604 lots, down 7,147 lots [3] - Net Positions of the Top 20 in Shanghai Zinc: - 11,031 lots, down 3,092 lots [3] - Shanghai Zinc Warehouse Receipts: 52,170 tons, up 799 tons [3] - SHFE Inventory (weekly): 94,649 tons, up 7,617 tons [3] - LME Inventory (daily): 50,150 tons, down 375 tons [3] 现货市场 - SMM 0 Zinc Spot Price: 22,230 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 Zinc Spot Price: 22,220 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - ZN Main Contract Basis: - 25 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan [3] - LME Zinc Premium (0 - 3): 26.76 US dollars/ton, down 3.41 US dollars [3] - Kunming 50% Zinc Concentrate Factory - delivered Price: 16,970 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [3] - Shanghai 85% - 86% Broken Zinc Price: 15,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Upstream Situation - WBMS: Zinc Supply - demand Balance (monthly): - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons [3] - ILZSG: Zinc Supply - demand Balance (monthly): - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons [3] - ILZSG: Global Zinc Mine Production (monthly): 1,007,500 tons, down 4,300 tons [3] - Domestic Refined Zinc Production (monthly): 617,000 tons, down 11,000 tons [3] - Zinc Ore Imports (monthly): 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] Industry Situation - Refined Zinc Imports (monthly): 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons [3] - Refined Zinc Exports (monthly): 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons [3] - Zinc Social Inventory (weekly): 159,600 tons, up 15,500 tons [3] Downstream Situation - Galvanized Sheet Production (monthly): 2,320,000 tons, down 130,000 tons [3] - Galvanized Sheet Sales (monthly): 2,340,000 tons, down 120,000 tons [3] - New Housing Starts (monthly): 352,060,000 square meters, up 48,416,800 square meters [3] - Housing Completions (monthly): 250,340,000 square meters, up 24,673,900 square meters [3] - Automobile Production (monthly): 2,510,000 vehicles, down 298,600 vehicles [3] - Air - conditioner Production (monthly): 19,678,800 units, up 3,476,400 units [3] Option Market - Implied Volatility of Zinc At - the - money Call Options: 15.74%, up 2.41 percentage points [3] - Implied Volatility of Zinc At - the - money Put Options: 15.75%, up 2.41 percentage points [3] - 20 - day Historical Volatility of Zinc At - the - money Options: 6.3%, down 0.01 percentage points [3] - 60 - day Historical Volatility of Zinc At - the - money Options: 11.05%, down 0.01 percentage points [3] Group 5: Industry News - In August, China's social consumer goods retail growth slowed to 3.4%, and the retail growth of household appliances and audio - visual equipment slowed to 14.3%. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with good growth in the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries. From January to August, national fixed - asset investment increased by 0.5%, and manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%. From January to August, real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 4.7% year - on - year. The macro - economic situation shows "sluggish industry, weak investment, and tepid consumption", and the expectation of a new round of policy easing is rising [3]. - The US has lowered the import tariff on Japanese cars to 15% starting from 0:01 on September 16, Eastern Time [3].