Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-16 09:29Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - situation in China shows characteristics of "slow industry, weak investment, and dull consumption", and expectations of a new round of policy easing are rising. Technically, with reduced positions and price adjustments, long - short trading is cautious and faces resistance at previous highs. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range trading [2][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Nickel is 122,610 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; the spread between the October - November contracts is - 200 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,425 US dollars/ton, up 45 US dollars/ton. The main contract's open interest is 66,538 lots, down 4,072 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 29,541 lots, down 1,273 lots. LME nickel inventory is 224,484 tons, down 600 tons. The SHFE nickel inventory is 27,500 tons, up 514 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 7,974 tons, down 600 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Nickel is 26,167 tons, up 1,208 tons [3] 现货市场 - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 123,600 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 123,500 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 990 yuan/ton, up 570 yuan/ton. The LME nickel (spot/3 - month) premium is - 185.68 US dollars/ton, down 14.48 US dollars/ton [3] Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 5.0058 million tons, up 659,200 tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 13.8616 million tons, up 779,300 tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 63.77 US dollars/ton, down 2.08 US dollars/ton. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 22,000 metal tons, down 200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 38,234.02 tons, up 21,018.74 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 835,900 tons, down 205,500 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7379 million tons, up 39,800 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 564,000 tons, down 13,400 tons [3] Industry News - In August, the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail slowed to 3.4%, and the growth rate of household appliances and audio - visual equipment retail slowed to 14.3%. The year - on - year growth rate of the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 5.2%, and the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries showed good momentum. From January to August, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 0.5%, and manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%. From January to August, real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 4.7% year - on - year. The US has lowered the import tariff on Japanese cars to 15% starting from 0:01 on the 16th, Eastern Time [3] 观点总结 - The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, and the premium of domestic trade ore remains stable. The supply of Philippine nickel ore has recovered, but the domestic nickel ore port inventory has decreased, and raw materials are in a tight situation. In the smelting sector, the production rhythm of leading enterprises remained stable in July, the output of a few smelters increased, and new production capacity is still planned to be put into operation, driving a slight increase in the overall refined nickel output. On the demand side, the profit of stainless steel plants has improved, and steel mills have increased production; the production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, but the demand for ternary batteries is limited. Recently, downstream buyers mainly purchase on dips, the spot premium remains stable, domestic inventory increases, and overseas LME inventory accumulates [3]