Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-16 09:29Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The sugar sales data in August was lower than the same period in previous years, but the inventory remained relatively low. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar sales in the country were 9.9998 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.1388 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 89.59%, a year-on-year increase of 0.65 percentage points. The industrial inventory was 116,230 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6,010 tons. The downstream is in the double - festival stocking stage, and it is expected that rigid demand will support prices. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract was 5,547 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan; the main contract position was 385,623 lots, an increase of 4,016 lots. The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 11,268, a decrease of 57; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions was - 59,144 lots, a decrease of 3,792 lots. The effective warehouse receipt forecast was 0 [2] Spot Market - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,418 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 4,376 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,611 yuan/ton, an increase of 26 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 5,556 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan. The spot prices of white sugar in Kunming, Nanning, and Liuzhou were 5,865 yuan/ton (an increase of 10 yuan), 5,890 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 5,970 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - cane planting area was 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the cumulative national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons. The planting area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares; the cumulative national sugar sales volume was 9.9998 million tons, an increase of 449,800 tons. The national industrial sugar inventory was 304,830 tons, a decrease of 81,430 tons; the national sugar sales rate was 85.59%, an increase of 1 percentage point. The monthly sugar import volume was 740,000 tons, an increase of 320,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The total sugar exports from Brazil were 3.744 million tons, an increase of 150,300 tons. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 1,402 yuan/ton, an increase of 37 yuan. The price difference outside the quota (50% tariff) for Brazilian sugar was 167 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 222 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar was 410,000 tons, an increase of 73,000 tons; the monthly output of soft drinks was 1.7966 million tons, a decrease of 46,200 tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 8.39%, an increase of 0.46 percentage points; that of put options was 8.43%, an increase of 0.46 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility was 5.54%, an increase of 0.04 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 6.28%, an increase of 0.06 percentage points [2] Industry News - As of September 9, 2025, the non - commercial net short position in raw sugar futures was 139,610 lots, an increase of 53,805 lots from the previous week. The long position was 170,080 lots, a decrease of 14,220 lots from the previous week, and the short position was 309,690 lots, an increase of 39,585 lots from the previous week. Indonesia has suspended issuing raw sugar import licenses for the rest of the year. The most actively traded October raw sugar futures on ICE rose 0.21 cents, or 1.30%, to settle at 16.0 cents per pound [2]