Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-16 09:29Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Last week, the inventory level of inland methanol enterprises decreased due to pre - National Day holiday stocking by middle and downstream industries and increased external procurement by some olefin enterprises in Inner Mongolia. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and it is expected to keep the accumulation rhythm this week. The import demand may be stable, and the specific accumulation amplitude depends on the unloading speed of foreign vessels. The start - up rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin is expected to rise after hedging. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2350 - 2410 in the short term [3] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2375 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is - 22 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 805,395 lots, an increase of 21,504 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 148,677 lots, a decrease of 36,491 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 16,131, unchanged [3] 2. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2295 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it is 2135 yuan/ton, up 17.5 yuan. The East - West price difference is 160 yuan/ton, down 7.5 yuan. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 80 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan. The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 265 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars; in Southeast Asia, it is 326 dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 293 euros/ton, unchanged. The price difference between the Chinese main port and Southeast Asia is - 61 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.04 dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.08 dollars [3] 4. Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 108.95 tons, up 8.72 tons; at South China ports, it is 46.08 tons, up 3.54 tons. The import profit of methanol is - 1.19 yuan/ton, down 15.09 yuan. The monthly import volume is 110.27 tons, down 11.75 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 342,600 tons, up 1500 tons. The methanol enterprise start - up rate is 84.58%, down 0.26% [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The start - up rate of formaldehyde is 43.13%, up 5.4%; dimethyl ether is 4.86%, up 0.03%; acetic acid is 83.11%, down 1.13%; MTBE is 61.69%, down 0.53%; olefins is 81.57%, down 3.15%. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefin is - 955 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan [3] 6. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 12.72%, up 0.38%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 16.57%, down 0.88%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 15.54%, up 0.06%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 15.55%, up 0.07% [3] 7. Industry News - As of September 10, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 34.26 tons, down 0.45 tons (1.31% MoM); the orders to be delivered were 25.07 tons, up 0.94 tons (3.91% MoM). The total port inventory was 155.03 tons, up 12.26 tons. As of September 11, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 82.66%, down 3.16% [3]