Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-16 09:23Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Domestic agricultural demand is in a seasonal off - season, and reserve demand has not started significantly. The domestic market trading activity is low, providing limited support to the urea market. Industrial demand improvement is less than expected. Although the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers has rebounded month - on - month, enterprises mainly produce based on sales, and the short - term adjustment of the start - up rate is expected to be limited. Last week, enterprise inventories varied, but overall inventory increased. Affected by the Indian tender and export policies, urea exports continued to accelerate. Some enterprises' inventories decreased due to fulfilling export orders, while those without exports saw slow inventory growth due to the slow progress of domestic demand. Due to the low domestic market trading sentiment, the urea shipment speed is affected, and short - term inventory still has a slight upward trend. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1650 - 1700 in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1686 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is - 51 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton; the main contract position is 277334 lots, down 7644 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 43212; the exchange warehouse receipt is 8279 pieces, down 334 pieces [2] Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui are 1670 yuan/ton (unchanged), 1640 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), 1640 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), 1650 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton), and 1650 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively. The main contract basis is - 36 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton. FOB Baltic is 396.5 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and FOB China main port is 423.5 US dollars/ton (unchanged) [2] Industry Situation - The port inventory is 54.94 million tons, down 7.15 million tons; the enterprise inventory is 113.27 million tons, up 3.77 million tons. The urea enterprise start - up rate is 79.34%, up 1.24%; the daily urea output is 185600 tons, up 2900 tons. The urea export volume is 57 million tons, up 50%; the monthly output is 5928680 tons, down 123400 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer start - up rate is 37.82%, up 4.74%; the melamine start - up rate is 55.38%, down 3.6%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizers in China is 165 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 16 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizers is 531.33 million tons, up 109.21 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 27500 tons, down 800 tons [2] Industry News - As of September 10, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 113.27 million tons, up 3.77 million tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 3.44%. As of September 11, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports is 54.94 million tons, down 7.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.52%. As of September 11, some recently shut - down urea production devices in China have resumed, and the domestic daily urea output has increased. This week, it is expected that 1 enterprise will plan to shut down and 5 - 6 shut - down enterprises will resume production. Considering short - term enterprise failures, the output may increase [2] Suggestions for Attention - Pay attention to the Longzhong enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and start - up rate on Thursday [2]