瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20250916

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan's supply is gradually increasing, with strong raw material purchase prices due to high demand from processing plants. In Hainan, local processing plants' enthusiasm for high - priced raw material procurement is average because of orders and profit performance, and new rubber supply growth is slow. [2] - Qingdao's natural rubber inventory decreased, with a larger - than - expected decline in bonded warehouses and a slight increase in general trade warehouses. As downstream businesses mainly replenish standard rubber, bonded warehouse inventories are expected to continue decreasing. [2] - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly. It is expected that most enterprises will maintain their current production schedules this week to stock up for the "National Day" holiday and fill previous order gaps, with overall capacity utilization fluctuating slightly. [2] - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15,850 - 16,300 in the short - term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 12,600 - 13,000 in the short - term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 16,040 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was 45 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,715 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the 10 - 11 spread was 5 yuan/ton. [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,325 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 148,333 lots, up 739 lots; that of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 65,091 lots, down 3,874 lots. [2] - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber were - 28,766 lots, down 4,801 lots; those of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber were - 13,669 lots, down 343 lots. [2] - Shanghai rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 152,250 tons, up 2,930 tons; 20 - number rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 45,561 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,150 yuan/ton, down 605 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 15,300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. [2] - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,870 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,870 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars. [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 15,150 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 15,100 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan. [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 890 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 845 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. [2] - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,287 yuan/ton, up 148 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 572 yuan/ton, up 143 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai smoked sheets was 60.06 Thai baht/kg, down 0.11 Thai baht; the price of Thai rubber sheets was 57.8 Thai baht/kg, down 0.5 Thai baht. [2] - The price of Thai rubber latex was 56.2 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the price of Thai cup lump was 51 Thai baht/kg, down 0.7 Thai baht. [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 158.6 US dollars/ton, down 52.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 17 US dollars/ton, down 31.4 US dollars. [2] - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 121,900 tons, up 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 259,500 tons, down 21,300 tons. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.59%, up 5.81 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.46%, up 5.99 percentage points. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 38.83 days, down 0.05 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 45.94 days, up 0.09 days. [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.03 million pieces, up 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.06 million pieces, up 1.09 million pieces. [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 16.92%, up 0.38 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 19.41%, up 0.25 percentage points. [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.72%, up 0.37 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.73%, up 0.39 percentage points. [2] 3.6 Industry News - From September 14th to September 20th, 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared to the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, heavy rainfall areas were mainly in southern Thailand and southwestern Cambodia, which would have a greater impact on tapping. In the southern hemisphere, heavy rainfall areas were mainly in central and southeastern Indonesia, and the impact on tapping was reduced. [2] - As of September 14th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 586,600 tons, a decrease of 5,600 tons or 0.95% from the previous period. Bonded area inventory was 66,200 tons, a decrease of 8.32%; general trade inventory was 520,400 tons, an increase of 0.07%. [2] - As of September 11th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.61%, a month - on - month increase of 5.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.31 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.31%, a month - on - month increase of 5.57 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.23 percentage points. [2]