股指期货：静观其变，不确定性下多空“平衡”

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 16, 2025 [1] - Core Theme: Wait and See, "Balance" between Long and Short under Uncertainty [1] Group 2: Market Review - Stock Index Performance: The stock index had a slight increase in trading volume today, with different performances among scale indexes. The small-cap index was relatively strong. For example, the CSI 300 index closed down 0.21%. [2] - Capital Flow: The trading volume of the two markets increased by 64.17 billion yuan. [2] - Futures Index: IF and IH declined with increased volume, while IC and IM rose with increased volume. [2] Group 3: Core View - Market Influence Factors: The stock market continued to fluctuate today, partly affected by the approaching Fed interest rate decision and the market's dovish expectations. The overnight US dollar index fell, and US stocks rose, driving the A-share market to reflect the expectation of loose liquidity to some extent. Technology stocks rose, and the small-cap index showed a significantly stronger trend. The results of the China-US talks had no impactful incremental information and limited influence. Trump said he would talk to President Xi on Friday. [4] - Market Outlook: Short-term policy uncertainty remains, and under the wait-and-see sentiment, the market's rise and fall will be relatively restrained. It is expected that tomorrow's market will continue to fluctuate, waiting for the Fed's interest rate decision to be announced early on Thursday. Be vigilant against the increased volatility caused by rumors. [4] Group 4: Strategy Recommendation - Strategy: Buy straddle options strategy [5] Group 5: Important Information - Fed Personnel News: Milan was confirmed as a Fed governor and will participate in Tuesday's interest rate decision. The US Court of Appeals rejected Trump's request to remove a Fed governor, and Cook was allowed to attend this week's interest rate decision. [6] - Industry Cooperation: On September 15, the Hangzhou Power Supply Company of the State Grid, Yushu Technology Company, Embodied Intelligence Base Company, and the Huadian Research Institute of Zhejiang Province of the State Grid signed a framework cooperation agreement on "Power + Embodied Intelligence" at the company's integrated innovation center, starting in-depth cooperation in the field of power artificial intelligence applications. [6] - Policy News: On September 16, an important article "Deeply Promote the Construction of a National Unified Market" was published in Qiushi Journal, emphasizing that the construction of a national unified market is a major decision made by the Party Central Committee and is of great significance for promoting high-quality development and winning the initiative in international competition. [6] Group 6: Market Data Futures Market | Index | Main Contract Intraday Change (%) | Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | Trading Volume MoM (10,000 lots) | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Open Interest MoM (10,000 lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF | -0.25 | 15.3511 | 1.5747 | 27.6592 | 0.9133 | | IH | -0.36 | 5.9526 | 0.4178 | 10.075 | 0.2226 | | IC | 0.55 | 16.1577 | 2.4221 | 26.2891 | 1.3259 | | IM | 1.02 | 26.1972 | 6.7583 | 37.9927 | 2.3224 | [5] Spot Market | Index | Change (%) | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index | 0.04 | | Shenzhen Component Index | 0.45 | | Stock Rise-Fall Ratio | 2.27 | | Two-Market Trading Volume (billion yuan) | 2341.402 | | Trading Volume MoM (billion yuan) | 64.17 | [7]