冠通研究：原油：原油震荡上行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Strategy analysis: Hold [1] Core Viewpoints - Crude oil is gradually exiting the seasonal travel peak season. Currently, EIA data shows that US crude oil and gasoline inventories have increased more than expected, and the increase in refined oil inventories has exceeded expectations. The overall oil product inventory continues to rise. However, the US refinery operating rate has rebounded slightly by 0.6 percentage points and remains relatively high. On September 7, OPEC+ officially stated that eight countries decided to adjust the production by 137,000 barrels per day from the additional voluntary production cut of 1.65 million barrels per day announced in April 2023, starting from October 2025. This 1.65 million barrels per day of production can be partially or fully restored according to market conditions and will be carried out gradually. The eight OPEC+ countries will hold their next meeting on October 5, which will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter. The latest IEA monthly report has further increased the expected surplus of crude oil. Saudi Aramco has lowered the shipping price of its flagship product, Arab Light crude oil, to Asia in October by $1 per barrel. Currently, after the discount of Russian crude oil has widened, India continues to import Russian crude oil, and India and the US are still in negotiations. Attention should be paid to the progress of the ceasefire agreement negotiation between Russia and Ukraine and India's procurement of Russian crude oil. As the subsequent consumption peak season is coming to an end, the weak US non-farm payroll data has raised concerns about crude oil demand, and OPEC+ is accelerating production increases. The supply and demand of crude oil will weaken, and it is recommended to short at high levels in the medium and long term. In the short term, the sharp decline in crude oil prices has partially released the negative impact of the OPEC+ meeting, and the market may focus on whether Europe and the US will increase sanctions on Russian crude oil. In addition, countries such as Iraq have submitted the latest compensation plans, with a cumulative compensation of 4.779 million barrels per day, of which the compensation production in October 2025 is 235,000 barrels per day, alleviating the pressure of increased supply. Israel's attack on the Hamas ceasefire negotiation delegation in Qatar has increased the geopolitical risk in the Middle East, and Ukraine has stepped up its attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. Crude oil is oscillating, and it is recommended to hold for now [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Today, the main contract of crude oil futures, the 2510 contract, rose 1.15% to 493.6 yuan per ton, with a minimum price of 486.8 yuan per ton and a maximum price of 495.2 yuan per ton. The open interest decreased by 3,109 to 13,395 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects the global oil inventory to increase by about 2.1 million barrels per day in the second half of 2025. Additionally, EIA has raised the average price of Brent crude oil in 2025 from $67.22 per barrel to $67.80 per barrel. However, EIA predicts that the Brent crude oil price will drop to $59 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and maintain the average price of Brent crude oil in 2026 at $51.43 per barrel. OPEC has maintained its forecast for the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 at 1.29 million barrels per day and in 2026 at 1.38 million barrels per day. IEA has raised its forecast for the global oil supply growth in 2025 by 200,000 barrels per day to 2.7 million barrels per day and increased the forecast for oil demand growth in 2025 by 60,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day [3] - On the evening of September 10, US EIA data showed that for the week ending September 5, US crude oil inventories increased by 3.939 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 1.04 million barrels, and were 2.83% lower than the five-year average; gasoline inventories increased by 1.458 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 243,000 barrels; refined oil inventories increased by 4.715 million barrels, compared with an expected increase of 35,000 barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 365,000 barrels. The EIA data shows that crude oil and gasoline inventories have increased more than expected, and the increase in refined oil inventories has exceeded expectations. The overall oil product inventory continues to rise [3] Supply and Demand - On the supply side, the latest OPEC monthly report shows that OPEC's crude oil production in July was revised down by 73,000 barrels per day to 27.47 million barrels per day, and its production in August 2025 increased by 478,000 barrels per day month-on-month to 27.948 million barrels per day, mainly driven by the increase in production in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE. US crude oil production increased by 72,000 barrels per day to 13.495 million barrels per day in the week of September 5. Currently, US crude oil production has decreased by 136,000 barrels per day from the all-time high set in early December last year [4] - According to the latest data from the US Energy Administration, the four-week average supply of US crude oil products has decreased to 20.888 million barrels per day, an increase of 2.76% compared with the same period last year, and the increase compared with the same period last year has decreased. Among them, the weekly gasoline demand decreased by 6.68% month-on-month to 8.508 million barrels per day, and the four-week average demand was 8.927 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.58% compared with the same period last year; the weekly diesel demand decreased by 10.38% month-on-month to 3.377 million barrels per day, and the four-week average demand was 3.813 million barrels per day, an increase of 2.01% compared with the same period last year. Both gasoline and diesel demand decreased month-on-month, driving the single-week supply of US crude oil products to continue to decrease by 4.22% month-on-month [4]