盘面回弹，等待驱动

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - After the futures atmosphere improved, the spot market started to buy at low prices, and the futures price rebounded technically after bottoming out. However, the loose supply - demand pattern has not reversed, and the market lacks driving forces. Investors should be cautious about chasing up [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The futures market opened high and trended lower today, with a relatively strong intraday oscillation. Affected by the futures rebound yesterday, the upstream factory transactions improved, and today's quotes rebounded slightly. The ex - factory transaction price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1600 - 1630 yuan/ton, and some Hebei factories quoted 1680 - 1690 yuan/ton, mainly for export port - collection orders. Urea factories have mainly resumed production in the past two weeks, and the output has recovered. Currently, the daily output is close to 190,000 tons. Recently, some Shanxi plants stopped for technical transformation, resulting in a slight decrease in regional output. On the demand side, after the price dropped to an acceptable range for downstream users and the futures rebounded, downstream users gradually started to purchase. After the military parade, the operating load of compound fertilizer factories rebounded, and the current operation is basically the same as last year. The finished product inventory of compound fertilizer factories has been continuously reduced this month, and fertilizers are being transferred to the end - users. Although the current output has decreased, due to insufficient domestic demand, the inventory is still increasing and is much higher than the same period in previous years, which restricts the upward movement of urea prices [1] Futures and Spot Market Futures - The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1700 yuan/ton, opened high and trended lower, with a relatively strong intraday oscillation, and finally closed at 1686 yuan/ton, forming a negative line, with a change rate of +0.42%. The open interest was 277,334 lots (-7,644 lots). Among the top twenty main positions of the main contract, the long positions decreased by 3,955 lots, and the short positions decreased by 5,791 lots. Hongyuan Futures had a net long position of +752 lots, Zhongtai Futures had a net long position of -991 lots; CITIC Futures had a net short position of +1357 lots, and Guotai Junan had a net short position of -551 lots. On September 16, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 8,279, a decrease of 334 from the previous trading day [2] Spot - Affected by the futures rebound yesterday, the upstream factory transactions improved, and today's quotes rebounded slightly. The ex - factory transaction price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1600 - 1630 yuan/ton, and some Hebei factories quoted 1680 - 1690 yuan/ton, mainly for export port - collection orders [1][4] Fundamental Tracking Basis - Today, the mainstream spot market quotes and the futures closing price both increased. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the January contract was -26 yuan/ton (+17 yuan/ton) [8] Supply Data - According to Feiyitong data, on September 16, 2025, the national daily urea output was 188,600 tons, basically unchanged, and the operating rate was 79.69% [10]