预计国债期货维持震荡整理

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The treasury bond futures are expected to maintain a volatile consolidation. Today, they fluctuated and slightly rebounded. The recently released credit data was weak, and the marginal growth rate of consumption slowed down, leading to an increased market expectation of loose policies in the fourth quarter. There is still an expectation of interest rate cuts in the medium and long term. However, currently, the treasury bond futures are mainly affected by the expectation of monetary policy and the risk appetite of the stock market. Since there is no high necessity for a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term, the upward space for treasury bond futures is limited. Additionally, the risk appetite in the stock market is at a high level, and the capital side suppresses the demand for treasury bonds. The year-on-year increase in non-bank deposit data in July and August indicates the manifestation of the stock-bond seesaw effect. Overall, the treasury bond futures will mainly experience low-level volatile consolidation in the short term. [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Industry News and Related Charts - On September 16th, the People's Bank of China conducted 287 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate through quantity tendering, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, which was the same as before. There were 247 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day. Based on this calculation, the net investment for the day was 40 billion yuan. [3]