Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-16 09:34Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Near the Fed's interest rate meeting, the precious metals market experienced increased intraday volatility. The London silver price hit a record high and then declined, while the gold price continued its oscillatory and bullish trend. The recent weak US economic data continued to support the September interest rate cut expectation, and the market trading sentiment remained optimistic overall [2]. - The moderate rise in consumer prices alleviated market concerns about a sharp rebound in inflation and supported the September interest rate cut decision. The current moderate inflation level was insufficient to change the Fed's easing path of starting an interest - rate cut cycle in September, and the easing expectation continued to boost the trading sentiment in the precious metals market [2]. - Trump's criticism of Fed Chairman Powell and his call for immediate and significant interest rate cuts provided safe - haven support for the gold price. In the short term, the buying demand at the key support levels in the precious metals market was still relatively strong, but considering that the interest rate cut expectation was already fully reflected in the current gold and silver futures prices, it was advisable to wait and see in the short term. Attention should be paid to the callback pressure after the market fully digested the interest rate cut expectation, and short - selling on rallies with light positions was recommended. The focus range for the Shanghai Gold 2510 contract was 820 - 850 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver 2510 contract was 9940 - 10150 yuan/kilogram [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Market - Prices: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 842.08 yuan/gram, up 10.48 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 10108 yuan/kilogram, up 91 yuan [2]. - Positions: The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold were 104060 lots, down 289 lots; those of Shanghai Silver were 195504 lots, down 8903 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract were 172844 lots, up 4300 lots; those of Shanghai Silver were 129824 lots, up 5969 lots [2]. - Warehouse Receipts: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 53226 kilograms, unchanged; that of silver was 1231261 kilograms, down 12220 kilograms [2]. b. Spot Market - Prices: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price was 835.8 yuan/gram, up 6.7 yuan; the silver spot price was 10104 yuan/kilogram, up 129 yuan [2]. - Basis: The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 6.28 yuan/gram, down 3.78 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was - 4 yuan/kilogram, up 38 yuan [2]. c. Supply - Demand Situation - ETF Holdings: Gold ETF holdings were 976.8 tons, up 2 tons; silver ETF holdings were 15069.6 tons, down 67.77 tons [2]. - CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions: Gold CFTC non - commercial net positions were 261740 contracts, up 12210 contracts; silver CTFC non - commercial net positions were 53937 contracts, down 1986 contracts [2]. - Supply and Demand Quantities: The total quarterly supply of gold was 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total quarterly demand for gold was 1313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the total global annual demand for silver was 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. d. Option Market - Historical Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 10.48%, up 0.28 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 10.96%, up 0.09 percentage points [2]. - Implied Volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 20.91%, up 0.43 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 20.91%, up 0.43 percentage points [2]. e. Industry News - Trump criticized Fed Chairman Powell and urged immediate and significant interest rate cuts. The US unemployment rate in August rose to 4.3%, the highest in nearly 4 years, and the weak employment data strengthened the market's expectation of a Fed interest rate cut, with analysts expecting a new round of rate cuts in September [2]. - The US September New York Fed Manufacturing Index dropped sharply by 21 points to - 8.7, far lower than the market expectation of 5. New orders and shipment indicators both fell to the lowest level since April 2024 [2]. - European Central Bank Executive Board member Schnabel said the ECB should maintain the current interest rate level, and the inflation risk remained tilted to the upside. Unless the eurozone suffered another major shock, interest rates were expected to remain at the current level for some time [2]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed this week was 95.9%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point rate cut was 4.1%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut in October was 23.1%, a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut was 73.8%, and a cumulative 75 - basis - point rate cut was 3.1% [2].