瑞达期货焦煤焦炭产业日报-20250916

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - On September 16, the coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1240.5, up 5.84%. Traders fully priced in three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of 2025. After the impact of administrative production cuts at the beginning of the month subsided, most mines resumed production. Supply from mines increased this period, the capacity utilization rate of independent coal washing plants decreased for 4 consecutive weeks, and the cumulative import growth rate declined for 3 consecutive months. Inventory is neutral. Technically, the daily K is above the 20 - and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile and bullish trend [2]. - On September 16, the coke 2601 contract closed at 1735.0, up 4.24%. The spot market saw a second - round price cut for coke. In terms of fundamentals, the pig iron output this period was 240.55 tons, an increase of 11.71 tons. After the impact of steel mill production control for the parade faded, pig iron output returned to the previous level. Coke inventory is moderately high. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide this period was 35 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K is above the 20 - and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile and bullish trend [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM main contract closing price: 1240.50 yuan/ton, up 53.00 yuan; J main contract closing price: 1735.00 yuan/ton, up 46.50 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract open interest: 982079.00 lots, up 43952.00 lots; J futures contract open interest: 53357.00 lots, down 86.00 lots [2]. - Net open interest of the top 20 coking coal contracts: - 115144.00 lots, down 5404.00 lots; Net open interest of the top 20 coke contracts: - 5055.00 lots, up 147.00 lots [2]. - JM 5 - 1 month contract spread: 89.00 yuan/ton, down 8.00 yuan; J 5 - 1 month contract spread: 138.50 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts: 600.00 pieces, up 100.00 pieces; Coke warehouse receipts: 1520.00 pieces, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal: 950.00 yuan/ton, up 15.00 yuan; Tangshan first - grade metallurgical coke: 1720.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR): 149.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal: 1570.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan; Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke: 1620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal: 1540.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur prime coking coal: 1270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; J main contract basis: - 15.00 yuan/ton, down 46.50 yuan [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price: 1080.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan; JM main contract basis: 29.50 yuan/ton, down 53.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Fine coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants: 25.60 million tons, up 0.40 million tons; Fine coal inventory of 314 independent coal washing plants: 280.60 million tons, down 5.60 million tons [2]. - Capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants: 0.35%, unchanged; Raw coal output: 39050.00 million tons, up 951.30 million tons [2]. - Coal and lignite imports: 4273.70 million tons, up 712.70 million tons; Average daily raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines: 185.60 million tons, up 15.60 million tons [2]. - Imported coking coal inventory at 16 ports: 466.35 million tons, up 1.58 million tons; Coke inventory at 18 ports: 258.31 million tons, down 2.45 million tons [2]. - Total coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises: 883.54 million tons, down 36.51 million tons; Coke inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises: 67.84 million tons, up 1.33 million tons [2]. 3.4 National Industrial Situation - Coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills: 793.73 million tons, down 2.03 million tons; Coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills: 633.29 million tons, up 9.58 million tons [2]. - Available days of coking coal for all - sample independent coking enterprises: 12.81 days, down 0.28 days; Available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills: 11.29 days, down 0.42 days [2]. - Coking coal imports: 962.30 million tons, up 53.11 million tons; Coke and semi - coke exports: 0.00 million tons, down 89.00 million tons [2]. - Coking coal output: 4089.38 million tons, up 25.00 million tons; Capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises: 75.92%, up 2.78% [2]. - Profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants: 35.00 yuan/ton, down 29.00 yuan/ton; Coke output: 4260.00 million tons, up 74.50 million tons [2]. 3.5 National Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills: 83.85%, up 3.47%; Blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills: 90.20%, up 4.43% [2]. - Crude steel output: 7737.00 million tons, down 228.82 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - An important article by Xi Jinping pointed out the need to address the chaotic low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity [2]. - Rio Tinto's SimFer announced that the first shipment of the Simandou project is planned for November 2025 and will gradually reach the designed capacity of 60 million tons within 30 months [2]. - From January to August, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.2% year - on - year, with a 0.1 - percentage - point decline compared to January - July; infrastructure investment increased by 2.0%, with a 1.2 - percentage - point decline; manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%, with a 1.1 - percentage - point decline; real estate development investment decreased by 12.9%, with a 0.9 - percentage - point increase in the decline [2].