Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-16 09:30Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - economic data in China shows characteristics of "slow industrial growth, weak investment, and sluggish consumption", leading to an increased expectation of a new round of policy easing. The actual tin ore output in Myanmar's Wa State will not occur until the fourth quarter, and the Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages. Currently, tin ore processing fees remain at historically low levels. The demand from downstream processing enterprises is in the recovery period of the peak season, but the order recovery is slow. The spot market is expected to remain quiet, with domestic inventory increasing and LME inventory rising while the spot premium drops significantly. Technically, with reduced positions and price corrections, there is a divergence in long - short trading, and attention should be paid to the MA5 support. It is recommended to either wait and see or conduct range trading [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 272,730 yuan/ton, down 1,230 yuan; the closing price of the October - November contract of Shanghai Tin is down 300 yuan; the LME 3 - month tin price is 34,680 dollars/ton, down 275 dollars. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai Tin is 24,273 lots, down 1,844 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 2,149 lots, down 369 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 2,645 tons, up 25 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 7,897 tons, up 124 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 160 tons, down 25 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrants of tin are 7,310 tons, down 92 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM1 tin spot price is 272,400 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 272,760 yuan/ton, down 1,180 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 330 yuan/ton, up 330 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 132 dollars/ton, down 97.02 dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate processing fee is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 40% tin concentrate is 261,300 yuan/ton, up 2,200 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 265,300 yuan/ton, up 2,200 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate processing fee is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, down 0.16 million tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 176,650 yuan/ton, down 1,140 yuan. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 160.14 million tons, up 14.45 million tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 14.07 million tons, down 3.39 million tons. The year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail in August slowed to 3.4%, and the growth rate of household appliances and audio - visual equipment retail slowed to 14.3%. The year - on - year increase in the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in August was 5.2%, with good growth in the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries. From January to August, national fixed - asset investment increased by 0.5%, and manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%. From January to August, real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 4.7% year - on - year [3] 3.6 Industry News - China's economic data in August shows "slow industrial growth, weak investment, and sluggish consumption", increasing the expectation of a new round of policy easing. The US has lowered the import tariff on Japanese cars to 15% starting from 0:01 on the 16th (Eastern Time). Myanmar's Wa State has restarted the mining license approval, but actual ore output will not occur until the fourth quarter; the Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, and currently, tin ore processing fees remain at historically low levels [3] 3.7 Key Points to Note - There is no news today [3]