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恒林股份(603661):OBM业务驱动增长,利润端短期承压

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 39.81 CNY per share [2][8]. Core Views - The company's OBM (Original Brand Manufacturing) business is driving growth, while profits are under short-term pressure. The first half of 2025 saw revenue of 5.347 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%, but net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 17.55% to 181 million CNY [2][8]. - The OBM business achieved approximately 2.96 billion CNY in revenue in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 26.8%, with cross-border e-commerce being the main growth driver [8]. - Traditional ODM/OEM business revenue was approximately 2.359 billion CNY, down 4.1% year-on-year, primarily due to a reclassification of sales channels [8]. - The company implemented effective cost control measures, resulting in a decrease in sales, management, and financial expense ratios [8]. - The report forecasts net profits of 369 million CNY, 504 million CNY, and 679 million CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 12, 9, and 7 [8]. Financial Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 5.347 billion CNY, with a net profit of 181 million CNY, reflecting a decline in profitability [2][8]. - The projected total revenue for 2025 is 12.905 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17% [4]. - The company’s gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 17.88%, down 3.28 percentage points year-on-year [8]. - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 11.883 billion CNY by 2025, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 94.8% [9].