2025年公募REITs市场9月半月报：二级企稳态势巩固，扩容步入新阶段-20250916

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stabilization trend of the REITs market is consolidated, with a narrowing adjustment range. The valuation has dropped again, but the spread between equity - type REITs and stocks and bonds remains strong [3]. - The trend of institutional top - level quotations persists, and the offline subscription sentiment remains high. The offline subscription yield in 2025 has reached 3.45% [3]. - Multiple types of assets are accelerating their entry into the market, and the "mixed - loading" of expansion and fundraising has opened up new avenues. The National Development and Reform Commission's "Document No. 782" promotes market expansion [3]. - The discount rate of the initial valuation of logistics REITs is narrowing, and new asset bidding is being carried out successively [3]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 REITs Market Adjustment Range Narrows, and the Spread Compared to Stocks and Bonds Remains Strong - Market Index Performance: In the first half of September 2025, the A - share market rose after a slight adjustment, while the 10 - year Treasury yield continued to rise. The China Securities REITs Index fell 0.81%, with a significantly narrower decline than in August [11]. - Sector Performance: Only rental - protected housing and consumer REITs rose, with increases of 0.63% and 0.37% respectively. Other sectors' declines also narrowed. Nearly 80% of industrial park REITs declined [16][19]. - Liquidity: The overall turnover rate of the market dropped to 0.48%. Only the turnover rate of rental - protected housing REITs increased by 0.08 percentage points, while energy and transportation REITs had significant contractions [24]. - Dividend Yield: As of September 15, 2025, the dividend yield of equity - type REITs was 3.92%. The spread with the 10 - year Treasury was at the 41% quantile, and the spread with the CSI Dividend was at the 71% quantile. The dividend yield of consumer REITs decreased significantly [28]. - Valuation: Both equity - type and concession - type REITs' valuations declined. The P/NAV of equity - type REITs was at the 58% quantile, and the P/FFO of concession - type REITs was at the 57% quantile. The IDC valuation increased significantly [32]. - IRR: The IRR quantiles of both types of assets increased. The industrial park's IRR quantile rose to 58% [35]. 3.2 The Trend of Institutional Top - Level Quotations Persists, and the Offline Subscription Sentiment Remains High - New Issue: In the first half of September 2025, Huaxia Kaide Commercial REIT was issued, with an issuance scale of 2.287 billion yuan. As of September 15, 2025, there were 74 listed REITs in Shanghai and Shenzhen, with a total market value of 221.7 billion yuan [40]. - Offline Subscription: The offline effective subscription multiple of Huaxia Kaide Commercial REIT reached 252.6 times, ranking third in history. The top - level subscription amount decreased to 639 million yuan. 98% of the products quoted at the upper limit of the inquiry price, but the final pricing was at the 82% position of the inquiry range, with an increased profit - sharing margin [41][50]. - Offline Enrollment and Allocation: The offline enrollment rate of Huaxia Kaide Commercial REIT was about 99%, and the offline allocation ratio was 0.40% [56]. - Initial Performance and Yield: The first - day increase of CICC Vipshop Outlet REIT in September was 27%. Excluding extreme values, the offline new - share subscription yield in 2025 was 3.45% [61]. 3.3 Multiple Types of Assets are Accelerating Their Entry into the Market, and the "Mixed - Loading" of Expansion and Fundraising has Opened up New Avenues - Policy Promotion: On September 12, 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission issued "Document No. 782", which accelerates the expansion of the REITs market. It supports the issuance of new assets such as railways, ports, and cultural and tourism assets and encourages more private investment projects to be listed [65]. - Asset Expansion: It promotes the application of mature assets, organizes the issuance of potential assets, and explores the issuance path of new assets. It also supports more private investment projects [70]. - Expansion and Fundraising Simplification: The expansion and fundraising threshold is shortened to 6 months, and the purchase of similar or related cross - industry assets is allowed [71][79]. - Project Cultivation: It is necessary to establish a project work ledger, strictly control project quality, and encourage an increase in the net recovery of project funds [83]. 3.4 The Discount of the Initial Valuation of Logistics REITs is Narrowing, and New Asset Bidding is Being Carried Out Successively - Projects Under Review: As of September 15, 2025, two expansion and fundraising projects have been registered but not issued, and 14 projects are under review [85]. - Valuation Update: In the first half of September, the valuation of two initial public offering projects was updated. The latest valuation discount rate of warehousing and logistics REITs has narrowed [88][94]. - Bidding Update: In the first half of September 2025, the bidding information of two public REITs was updated, including a new cultural and tourism project and a transportation project [96][99].