冠通研究：等待降息落地

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The market is trading on the expected rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and the US dollar index is continuously weakening. Fundamentally, domestic copper production is expected to decrease significantly due to reduced scrap copper imports and domestic smelter maintenance, which will support copper prices. The demand side is currently in the expectation of the peak season, and the downstream purchasing situation has improved. Therefore, copper prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall in the future [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - From September 14th to 15th, the economic and trade teams of China and the US held talks in Madrid, Spain. As of September 12th, China's spot TC was -41.42 dollars per dry ton, and RC was -4.16 cents per pound, remaining weakly stable. Factory seasonal maintenance plans in September and October will lead to production reduction, and small and medium - sized smelters are under profit pressure. The supply of refined copper remains tight. In August, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China was 1.1715 million tons, a 0.24% month - on - month decrease and a 15.59% year - on - year increase. Affected by policies, the supply of scrap copper in September will significantly decline, and smelters have maintenance plans in September, so the electrolytic copper production in September is expected to drop sharply. Although the price has been pushed up recently, the downstream trading atmosphere has improved, but the realization of the peak - season expectation remains to be seen. The SHFE inventory has slightly increased, imports have risen, and high prices have curbed copper demand, starting a inventory - building trend [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened high and moved higher, with a strong and volatile trend, closing at 80,880 yuan per ton at the end of the session. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 70 yuan per ton, and in South China was 40 yuan per ton. On September 15, 2025, the LME official price was 10,073 dollars per ton, and the spot premium was - 87 dollars per ton [4]. Supply Side - As of September 12th, the latest data showed that the spot TC was -41.42 dollars per dry ton, and the spot RC was -4.16 cents per pound. In terms of inventory, SHFE copper inventory was 33,700 tons, an increase of 3,049 tons from the previous period. As of September 15th, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 76,400 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 151,000 tons, a decrease of 1,325 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 311,800 short tons, an increase of 1,360 short tons from the previous period [7][11].