冠通研究：PVC：震荡上行

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the PVC industry is "shock upward" [1] Core View of the Report - The PVC market is expected to show a shock upward trend, but the upward space is limited. The supply side is under pressure due to increased production capacity and high inventory, while the demand side is weak due to the slow recovery of the real estate market [1] Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - It is recommended to close short positions. The upstream calcium carbide price in the northwest region has increased by 25 yuan/ton. The PVC operating rate has increased by 2.81 percentage points to 79.94%, remaining at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream operating rate has increased but is still low compared to previous years, with cautious procurement. India has postponed the BIS policy for six months to December 24, 2025. The export tax of Chinese PVC to India has increased, reducing the export expectation in the second half of the year. However, export orders have increased after the recent price decline. The social inventory has continued to increase and is still high. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and the improvement needs time. The chloro - alkali comprehensive profit is positive, and the PVC operating rate has increased this week. New production capacities have been put into operation or are in the process of commissioning. The anti - involution sentiment has resurfaced, but there is no actual policy implementation in the PVC industry. The PVC basis is low, and the upward space is limited. The PVC demand increased significantly last week, and its sustainability needs attention [1] Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2601 contract has increased in price with reduced positions, closing at 4960 yuan/ton, up 1.27%, and the position has decreased by 61,765 lots to 1,138,709 lots [2] Basis - On September 16, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China has risen to 4725 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2601 contract is 4960 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 235 yuan/ton, weakening by 12 yuan/ton, which is at a low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply Side: The production of some devices such as Baotou Haiping and Inner Mongolia Junzheng has increased. The PVC operating rate has increased by 2.81 percentage points to 79.94%, remaining at a relatively high level in recent years. New production capacities of Wanhua Chemical, Tianjin Bohua, Qingdao Gulf, and Gansu Yaowang have been put into production or are in the process of commissioning [4] - Demand Side: The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. From January to August 2025, the national real estate development investment was 603.09 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9%. The sales area, sales volume, new construction area, construction area, and completion area of commercial housing have all decreased to varying degrees. As of the week of September 14, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities has decreased by 1.79% week - on - week, remaining at a low level in recent years. The impact of real estate favorable policies on sales needs attention [5] - Inventory: As of the week of September 11, the PVC social inventory has increased by 1.75% week - on - week to 934,200 tons, an increase of 8.63% compared to the same period last year. The social inventory has continued to increase and is still high [6]