光大期货能化商品日报-20250916

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Oil prices are expected to move up slightly due to escalating geopolitical tensions and improved domestic demand data [1]. - Fuel oil prices are expected to fluctuate, with the low - sulfur fuel oil market structure weakening and the high - sulfur fuel oil market having some support. Attention should be paid to the fluctuations of crude oil on the cost side [3]. - Asphalt prices may rise further as the supply is expected to decline slightly in September and the demand is supported by the "Golden September and Silver October" season. Attention should be paid to the fluctuations of oil prices on the cost side [3]. - Polyester prices are expected to fluctuate. PTA's fundamentals are expected to improve, and ethylene glycol's supply recovery needs to be followed up. Prices may follow the cost side [4]. - Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate, with both supply and demand increasing. Attention should be paid to the results of China - US talks and the Fed meeting [6]. - Methanol prices are expected to enter a stage bottom, and the basis will gradually strengthen. Attention should be paid to buying opportunities at low prices [6]. - Polyolefin prices will fluctuate with raw materials as the demand is improving marginally and the supply remains stable [8]. - PVC prices are expected to fluctuate due to high supply, slow domestic demand recovery, and large inventory pressure [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Crude Oil: On Monday, WTI October contract closed up $0.61 to $63.30 per barrel, a 0.97% increase; Brent November contract closed up $0.45 to $67.44 per barrel, a 0.67% increase; SC2510 closed at 493.4 yuan per barrel, up 5.4 yuan or 1.11%. Geopolitical tensions are rising, and domestic demand data has improved month - on - month. In August, the output of industrial crude oil above designated size was 18.26 million tons, a 2.4% year - on - year increase, and the processing volume was 63.46 million tons, a 7.6% year - on - year increase [1]. - Fuel Oil: On Monday, the main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil FU2601 rose 2.41% to 2,799 yuan per ton, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil LU2511 fell 2.65% to 3,375 yuan per ton. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure is weakening, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market has some support. The supply in Singapore has increased recently [3]. - Asphalt: On Monday, the main contract of asphalt BU2511 fell 0.29% to 3,393 yuan per ton. The supply is expected to decline slightly in the remaining weeks of September, and the demand is supported by the "Golden September and Silver October" season [3]. - Polyester: TA601 closed at 4,672 yuan per ton, up 0.52%; EG2601 closed at 4,288 yuan per ton, up 0.37%. PX supply has recovered, and the downstream TA maintenance is coming to an end. The fundamentals of polyester are expected to improve [4]. - Rubber: On Monday, the main contract of natural rubber RU2601 rose 175 yuan to 15,995 yuan per ton, and the main contract of 20 - number rubber NR rose 155 yuan to 12,710 yuan per ton. The supply and demand are both increasing, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline [4][6]. - Methanol: The supply is currently at a low level due to many domestic device overhauls and will gradually recover. The Xingxing device has resumed production, and the supply - demand gap in East China is narrowing. The price is expected to enter a stage bottom [6]. - Polyolefin: The demand is improving marginally with the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" season, and the supply remains stable. The price will fluctuate with raw materials [8]. - PVC: The domestic real - estate construction has stabilized and rebounded, but the demand recovery is slow. The export is affected by India's anti - dumping policy. The total inventory pressure is large, and the price is expected to fluctuate [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on September 15, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes compared with September 12 [9]. 3.3 Market News - In August, the production of industrial crude oil above designated size increased by 2.4% year - on - year, and the processing volume increased by 7.6% year - on - year. The US is ready to impose new energy sanctions on Russia, but only if all NATO countries stop buying Russian oil [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [14][17][20] 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - The report shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc. [32][34][38] 3.4.3 Inter - contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [47][49][52] 3.4.4 Inter - product Spreads - The report presents the spread charts between different products, such as crude oil's internal - external spread, B - W spread, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spread, etc. [62][66][70] 3.4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the production profit charts of ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [73][76] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their professional backgrounds and achievements [78][79][80] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is on the 6th floor, Unit 703, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [83]