贵金属日报-20250916

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★☆☆ (indicating a slightly bullish trend but with limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Silver: ★☆★ [1] Core Viewpoints - Overnight, precious metals maintained their strength. The market is pricing in three consecutive interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. Trump stated that Powell must cut interest rates more than expected. International gold prices have continuously hit new highs, and silver has also broken through the upside, with the upward trend expected to continue. It is recommended to hold long positions. This week, focus on the Fed's interest rate cut幅度 and Powell's speech for guidance on the future path. If the rate cut meets expectations, beware of a short - term "buy - the - rumor, sell - the - news" adjustment [1] Other Summaries Fed - related Events - On Monday, a US appeals court rejected Trump's request to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook. Cook can temporarily stay on the Fed during the interest - rate meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. The Trump administration is expected to appeal to the US Supreme Court. Also on Monday, Trump - nominated Fed governor candidate Milan received enough votes for confirmation in the US Senate and will participate in the Fed's interest - rate decision this week [2] Fed Interest Rate Cut Probabilities - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed this week is 95.9%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 4.1%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut by October is 23.1%, a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 73.8%, and a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 3.1% [2] Sino - US Trade Talks - Chinese Commerce Ministry official Li Chenggang said on the 15th that in the past two days, China and the US held talks in Madrid, Spain. The two sides actively implemented the consensus of the phone call between the two heads of state, gave full play to the role of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism, and had frank, in - depth and constructive communication on economic and trade issues such as TikTok [2]