有色金属日报-20250916

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long/short trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - Aluminum: ななな - Alumina: ななな - Cast Aluminum Alloy: 文文文 - Zinc: な☆☆ - Nickel: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price increase/decrease but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: 立☆☆ - Tin: な☆☆ - Lithium Carbonate: な女女 - Industrial Silicon: ななな - Polysilicon: な女女 [1] Core Viewpoints - The report provides an analysis of the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals, including price trends, inventory changes, supply - demand relationships, and offers corresponding investment suggestions such as taking profit, short - term observation, and waiting for key position breakthroughs [2][3][4] Summaries by Metal Categories Copper - The intraday gain of Shanghai copper was recovered on Tuesday, and the spot copper price was raised to 81,120 yuan. After the contract change, the premiums in Shanghai and Guangdong were 75 yuan and 40 yuan respectively. To see further price increases, focus on capital interest. Currently, the trading volume and open interest are average. It is recommended to take profit on long positions opportunistically [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated today, and the spot discounts in various regions remained stable, with a 50 - yuan discount in East China. Downstream开工 continued to pick up seasonally, and the aluminum ingot inventory is likely to remain at a low level this year. However, the social inventory of aluminum ingots has not shown an inflection point, increasing by 11,000 tons on Monday compared to last Thursday. Pay attention to the demand feedback during the peak season. Shanghai aluminum will test the resistance at the March high in the short term. Cast aluminum alloy slightly declined following Shanghai aluminum, and the Baotai spot price remained at 20,600 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the expected adjustment of the tax policy will increase enterprise costs. There is room for the cross - variety price difference between spot and Shanghai aluminum to further narrow. The operating capacity of alumina has exceeded 97 million tons, hitting a new high, and the industry inventory has continued to rise, with warehouse receipts exceeding 150,000 tons. The supply surplus is obvious, and the spot prices in various regions have continued to decline. The tender price of Xinjiang aluminum plants, converted to the northern ex - factory price, is lower than 2,950 yuan. The cash cost of production capacity in Shanxi and Henan still has a profit, and the support level for alumina is temporarily seen around the June low of 2,830 yuan [3] Zinc - The characteristics of the consumption peak season are not obvious. The spot price continues to be at a discount to the futures price. Holders are active in delivering goods to warehouses, and downstream buyers only make rigid - demand purchases at low prices. The SMM social inventory of zinc has risen to 160,600 tons, and Shanghai zinc is under pressure due to oversupply. The rebound was blocked at the 40 - day moving average. The LME zinc inventory continued to decline to 50,200 tons, and the 0 - 3 month premium was $26.76 per ton. The overseas spot market is tight, and the fundamentals at home and abroad are highly differentiated. The Shanghai - London ratio is moving towards the direction of opening exports. The overseas market provides support for the domestic market, and Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate narrowly above 22,000 yuan/ton. Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see approach [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel fluctuated at a low level. The speculation of interest - rate cut expectations led to the reduction of short positions. In the spot market, the premium of Jinchuan nickel was 2,300 yuan, the premium of imported nickel was 300 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel was 50 yuan. The price of high - nickel ferrochrome was 956 yuan per nickel point. Recently, the upstream price support has rebounded slightly, and the political situation turmoil has been further hyped up, pushing up the price level of the nickel industry chain. The pure nickel inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 41,000 tons, the nickel - iron inventory decreased by 4,000 tons to 29,200 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 16,000 tons to 919,000 tons. Shanghai nickel is affected by interest - rate cut expectations and is expected to fluctuate at a low level [7] Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated with a decrease in open interest and closed lower. The spot tin price was reduced by 900 yuan to 272,400 yuan. Overnight, the LME 0 - 3 month spot discount widened to $132. The risk of overseas trading volume and open interest has decreased. The focus of the tin market has shifted to the domestic market. Wait for specific import and export data related to tin this week, and focus on tracking the import of concentrates and whether refined tin will turn into a net export in a single month. After taking profit on a small number of long positions earlier, temporarily adopt a wait - and - see approach [8] Lithium Carbonate - The total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 138,500 tons. The smelter inventory decreased by 3,200 tons to 36,000 tons, the downstream inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 58,000 tons. After the rapid price decline, downstream buyers took the opportunity to purchase, and the trader inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 44,000 tons. The middle - stream sector has become cautious. The transfer of cargo rights is mainly due to upstream producers selling to downstream buyers. The latest quotation of Australian ore is $810. The ore - end quotation has slightly adjusted, matching the lithium price fluctuation. The futures price of lithium carbonate shows support at a low level. Since the selling actions in the industry chain are basically completed, adopt a short - term bullish view. Subsequently, pay attention to the medium - and long - term directional guidance brought by external changes [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed higher with a decrease in open interest, approaching the resistance level of 9,000 yuan/ton. Recently, the price increase was partly driven by the rising coking coal price. From a policy perspective, the expectations of clearing out high - energy - consumption and inefficient production capacity and adjusting energy - consumption standards are continuously rising, but the actual implementation effect remains to be seen. Fundamentally, the spot price of industrial silicon was raised by 100 yuan/ton. The supply in September is expected to increase by 5% month - on - month, and the production schedules of downstream silicone and polysilicon are expected to be slightly reduced month - on - month. The latest weekly social inventory of industrial silicon increased slightly month - on - month. In summary, policy expectations provide some support to the market, but the room for fundamental improvement is limited. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term. Pay attention to the resistance at 9,000 yuan/ton [10] Polysilicon - The intraday high of polysilicon was 55,900 yuan/ton, and it closed at 53,600 yuan/ton, mainly because a polysilicon leading company announced a plan to raise funds for supply - side structural reform. On the spot side, the quotation of polysilicon N - type re - feeding material was stable at 49,000 - 54,000 yuan/ton. The production schedule in September decreased only slightly compared with last month. In late August, crystal - pulling factories made concentrated purchases due to the expected polysilicon production cut. Currently, the trading volume has slowed down, and the polysilicon inventory continues to rise. In summary, policy expectations provide a bottom - line support, and the capital flow rhythm changes rapidly. To break through the key resistance level, incremental policy news is still required. The short - term trend will remain volatile [11]