瑞达期货国债期货日报-20250916

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Tuesday, Treasury bond spot yields strengthened collectively, with 1 - 7Y maturity yields down about 1.50 - 2.50bp, and 10Y, 30Y maturity yields down about 1bp to 1.78%, 2.08% respectively. Treasury bond futures also strengthened collectively, with the TS, TF, T, TL main contracts rising 0.04%, 0.13%, 0.15%, 0.00% respectively. The weighted average rate of DR007 rebounded slightly to fluctuate around 1.50%. [2] - In the domestic fundamental aspect, in August, the growth rates of industrial added - value and social retail sales slowed down, the scale of fixed - asset investment continued to shrink, and the unemployment rate rose seasonally. In terms of financial data, in August, China's social financing growth rate declined slightly, the support of government bonds for social financing weakened, new loans turned from negative to positive, but the credit growth rate continued to weaken, and overall demand remained weak; the M1 - M2 gap narrowed, and the marginal improvement of capital activation degree. [2] - Overseas, the US labor market slowed down significantly, the inflation level rose moderately, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September was firm. The market has priced in the expectation of three interest rate cuts this year. Recently, the bond market has been oscillating at the bottom under the influence of policy signals such as anti - involution and the reform of bond fund redemption fees. The market is sensitive to negative news, and the overall repair momentum is weak. In the context of the weak recovery of the fundamentals, the possibility of a trend decline in the bond market is low, and the yield is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation pattern. [2] - Strategically, it is recommended to observe the adjustment rhythm of Treasury bond futures in the short term, and participate in band operations after the market stabilizes; at the same time, pay attention to the term spread trading opportunities brought by the steepening of the yield curve. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Closing Prices and Volume Changes: The closing prices of T, TF, TS, TL main contracts were 108.000 (up 0.15%), 105.795 (up 0.13%), 102.414 (up 0.04%), 115.480 (unchanged) respectively. The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, TL main contracts increased by 44141, 35801, 19618, 66446 respectively. [2] - Futures Spreads: Some spreads changed, such as the TL2512 - 2603 spread increased by 0.03 to 0.34, the T12 - TL12 spread increased by 0.11 to - 7.48, etc. [2] - Futures Positions: The positions of T, TF, TS, TL main contracts all increased, and the net short positions of the top 20 in each contract also increased. [2] 3.2 Bond Market - CTD Bonds: The net prices of some CTD bonds such as 220017.IB, 220019.IB, etc. increased. [2] - Active Bonds: The yields of 1 - year active bonds decreased by 0.25bp to 1.3975%, while the yields of 3 - year remained unchanged, and the yields of 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year increased by 0.75bp, 0.50bp, 1.05bp respectively. [2] 3.3 Interest Rates - Short - term Interest Rates: The silver - pledged overnight, Shibor overnight, silver - pledged 7 - day, Shibor 7 - day, silver - pledged 14 - day, and Shibor 14 - day interest rates all increased. [2] - LPR Rates: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged. [2] 3.4 Market News - Domestic Economic Data: On September 15, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in August, the national industrial added - value above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year and 0.37% month - on - month. Social consumer goods retail sales increased by 3.4% year - on - year and 0.17% month - on - month. Fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.20% month - on - month. The national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.3%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month and the same as the same month last year. [2] - Sino - US Talks: From September 14th to 15th, Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held talks in Madrid, reaching a basic framework consensus on issues such as properly resolving the TikTok - related issue, reducing investment barriers, and promoting relevant economic and trade cooperation. [2] - Housing Prices: In August 2025, in 70 large and medium - sized cities, the prices of commercial residential buildings in all tiers decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline generally continued to narrow. [2] 3.5 Key Events to Watch - September 16, 20:30, US August retail sales month - on - month rate. - September 18, 02:00, the Fed FOMC announces the interest rate decision and economic outlook summary. [3]