国际宏观资讯双周报-20250916

Economic Insights - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000 in August, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest since 2021, raising concerns about labor market deterioration[11] - Israel's real GDP grew by 2.5% year-on-year in Q2 2025, an acceleration of 0.6 percentage points from the previous quarter[13] - Iran faces an electricity shortfall of approximately 14,000 to 15,000 MW, prompting the government to initiate hundreds of development projects in fisheries, mining, and ports[15] Monetary Policy and Inflation - The European Central Bank indicated that current interest rates should remain unchanged, with inflation in the Eurozone at 2.1% in August, slightly above expectations[9] - Egypt's central bank cut interest rates by 200 basis points, bringing overnight deposit and loan rates to 22% and 23%, respectively, as inflation expectations stabilize[18] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve in September is as high as 98% following disappointing employment data[12] Political Developments - French Prime Minister François Béru's government collapsed after a no-confidence vote, marking the fourth prime minister to resign in over a year amid ongoing fiscal challenges[7] - Turkey has closed its ports and airspace to Israeli vessels and aircraft in response to actions in Gaza, escalating regional tensions[26] Sovereign Credit Ratings - Fitch downgraded Poland's sovereign credit outlook from stable to negative, citing increased risks to public finances with projected deficits averaging 6.7% of GDP in 2024 and 2025[48]