铜日报：铜价高度计价全年降息，周四决议或将加剧波动-20250916

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - Short - term copper market may experience high - level oscillations. Supply - side disturbances and overseas inventory accumulation create a long - short game, while the resilience of domestic new energy demand supports the spot premium. Macro factors such as the fluctuation of the US dollar index and weak global manufacturing data may limit the upside space. The market pricing highly depends on the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, and market volatility may intensify after the Thursday's resolution [3]. - In the next one to two weeks, copper prices may remain in a high - level oscillation, with the price range likely between 80,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton (SHFE) and 9,900 - 10,200 US dollars/ton (LME) [33]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary Copper Futures Market Data Changes - On September 15, the main contract of Shanghai copper closed at 81,000 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium of SHFE copper showed that the premium of flat - water copper was 65 yuan/ton, and the LME (0 - 3) discount widened to - 73.42 US dollars/ton [1]. - The open interest of the SHFE copper 2509 contract continued to shrink, with a daily reduction of 3,855 lots to 4,090 lots; the open interest of LME copper increased slightly by 2,464 lots to 291,554 lots [1]. Changes in Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory - Supply side: Small and medium - sized smelters in the Democratic Republic of Congo reduced production due to tight hydropower supply, and Zambia restricted sulfuric acid exports, which may intensify the short - term supply shortage of wet - process copper. Zijin Copper's 200,000 - ton cathode copper expansion project supports medium - term production capacity but cannot alleviate the short - term shortage [2]. - Demand side: The relatively strong domestic spot premium indicates that there is still domestic restocking demand, but weak global manufacturing drags down overseas consumption [2]. - Inventory side: LME inventory soared to 25,560 tons on September 12, reaching a recent high, indicating potential overseas surplus pressure; SHFE inventory slightly decreased to 153,950 tons [2]. Market Summary - The short - term copper market may be in a high - level oscillation. The supply - side disturbances and overseas inventory accumulation form a long - short game, and the resilience of domestic new energy demand supports the spot premium. Macro factors may limit the upside space, and market volatility may intensify after the Thursday's resolution [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring | Data Index | 2025 - 09 - 15 | 2025 - 09 - 12 | 2025 - 09 - 09 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM:1 Copper (Premium Copper) | 81,070 | 81,080 | 80,270 | - 10 | - 0.01% | yuan/ton | | SMM:1 Copper (Flat - Water Copper) | 50 | 65 | 65 | - 15 | - 23.08% | yuan/ton | | SMM:1 Copper (Wet - Process Copper) | - 70 | - 35 | - 40 | - 35 | - 100.00% | yuan/ton | | LME (0 - 3) | - 62 | - 73 | - 62 | 11 | 15.65% | US dollars/ton | | SHFE Price | 80,830 | 80,800 | 80,090 | 30 | 0.04% | yuan/ton | | LME Price | 10,189 | 10,065 | 10,057 | 125 | 1.24% | US dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 30,643 | 25,560 | 20,028 | 5,083 | 19.89% | tons | | SHFE Inventory | 152,625 | 153,950 | 154,175 | - 1,325 | - 0.86% | tons | | COMEX Inventory | 311,847 | 310,487 | 309,834 | 1,360 | 0.44% | short tons | [5] 3. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper price, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper price, TC processing fees, CFTC copper open interest, LME copper net long open interest analysis, SHFE copper warrant volume, LME copper inventory change, COMEX copper inventory change, and SMM social inventory [6][7][9]