Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the agricultural products industry. Instead, it gives individual ratings for each product: - Corn: Oscillating [2] - Soybean Meal: Oscillating [2] - Edible Oils: Oscillating [2] - Eggs: Oscillating with a slight upward trend [2] - Pigs: Oscillating [3] 2. Core Views - Corn: On Monday, the November corn contract accelerated its decline, approaching the previous low. The price of corn in the northern ports decreased slightly, influenced by the decline in futures prices. The price of new-season corn in the Northeast varied, with the price in Liaoning decreasing, while the deep - processing enterprises in Heilongjiang continued to raise the purchase price of new - season corn, providing some support. In the North China region, corn prices fluctuated, with more enterprises experiencing price drops. Some new - season corn was sporadically listed, and downstream procurement enthusiasm was low. Technically, the November contract faced resistance during the rebound and then fell again, pressured in the 2180 - 2200 area. In the short term, beware of a rebound after reaching the support level, and in the medium term, it is expected to remain weak due to bumper harvests and cost reduction [2]. - Soybean Meal: On Monday, CBOT soybeans fell from a two - week high, affected by seasonal harvest pressure and concerns about demand. The post - market crop report showed that the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 63% and the harvest rate was 5%, both in line with market expectations. Strong crushing and export inspection data supported the market. Brazil started sowing soybeans for the 25/26 season, and drought in the western part might have disrupted the sowing. Domestically, the spot price of soybean meal declined, and the supply - demand report was bearish. The spot market was loose, and the market was mainly oscillating due to a lack of guiding themes. Short - term participation is recommended [2]. - Edible Oils: BMD palm oil was closed for holidays on Monday and Tuesday. Canadian rapeseed prices fell due to weak exports and harvest pressure. US soybean oil prices declined following the fall of US soybeans and the expectation of increased supply. Domestically, edible oil futures prices oscillated. Although there is still an expectation of a bull market in the stock market, prices are volatile. The market sentiment for edible oils is relatively optimistic, but factors such as falling import costs and expected increased imports are bearish. Currently, the market is mainly oscillating. Strategies include trading volatility or selling put options [2]. - Eggs: On Monday, the main 2511 egg futures contract opened higher and closed higher, with a slight late - session correction. The daily increase was 3.39%, closing at 3143 yuan/500 kilograms. The spot price continued to rebound. Terminal demand improved, and the futures price was boosted by the spot price. Fundamentally, the number of brooding chicks supplemented from May to August continued to decline, corresponding to a decrease in the newly - opened production volume from September to December. If the culling intention of the breeding end remains stable or increases in the future, the egg - laying hen inventory will decrease, reducing the pressure on egg prices from the supply side. In the short term, the futures price is relatively strong due to spot price support, but the inference of a trend - like decline in production capacity needs verification. It is recommended to wait and see and moderately participate with a light position [2]. - Pigs: On Monday, the main 2511 live - hog futures contract opened lower and then oscillated upward, closing with a 0.15% increase at 13275 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the daily average price of live hogs in China was 13.14 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.18 yuan/kg compared to the previous day. The average price in the benchmark delivery area of Henan was 13.3 yuan/kg, also down 0.18 yuan/kg. The demand side showed no obvious improvement, and the enthusiasm of breeders to sell increased, providing limited support for pig prices. Most pig prices across the country decreased slightly, and a few remained stable. In the short term, supply still exerts pressure on pig prices, and the market is waiting for policy guidance [3]. 3. Market Information - Malaysia's Sabah state government canceled the state - level Malaysia Day celebration originally scheduled for Tuesday due to floods in at least seven counties caused by continuous heavy rain [4]. - In August, India's palm oil imports were 990,528 tons (compared to 855,695 tons in July), soybean oil imports were 367,917 tons (compared to 492,336 tons in July), vegetable oil imports were 1,677,346 tons (compared to 1,579,041 tons in July), and sunflower oil imports were 257,080 tons (compared to 200,010 tons in July) [4]. - As of the week ending September 7, Canadian rapeseed exports decreased by 1.5% to 47,200 tons compared to the previous week. From August 1 to September 7, 2025, Canadian rapeseed exports were 529,500 tons, a 53.4% decrease compared to the same period last year. As of September 7, the commercial inventory of Canadian rapeseed was 516,200 tons [4]. - As of the week ending September 12, the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills was 2.36 million tons, an increase of 60,000 tons week - on - week, 20,000 tons month - on - month, 120,000 tons year - on - year, and 380,000 tons higher than the average of the past three years. Since May 23, the domestic soybean crushing volume has exceeded 2 million tons for 17 consecutive weeks. It is expected that the operating rate of oil mills will slightly increase this week, with the crushing volume around 2.4 million tons [5]. 4. Variety Spreads - Contract Spreads: The report presents various 1 - 5 contract spreads, including those for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs, but does not provide detailed analysis of these spreads [6][7][8][12]. - Contract Basis: The report shows the basis for multiple contracts such as corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs, without in - depth analysis [14][15][16][18][19][25].
光大期货农产品日报-20250916
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-09-16 11:15