乙烯行业专题：海外装置竞争力下降，中国产能迎发展机遇

Investment Rating - The report rates the ethylene industry as "Outperform the Market" [1][4][5] Core Insights - Ethylene is a cornerstone of the petrochemical industry, with diverse applications across various sectors including packaging, agriculture, construction, textiles, electronics, and automotive [1][12] - China has surpassed the United States to become the world's largest producer and consumer of ethylene, contributing significantly to global capacity growth [1][13] - The global ethylene market is projected to reach USD 146.22 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of approximately 5.68% from 2025 to 2034 [1][17][19] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Ethylene production relies on various feedstocks, with naphtha being the primary raw material, while ethane and coal are also significant [12][30] - The average global operating rate for ethylene has dropped to around 82%, with many facilities facing closure risks due to low profitability [21][25] Regional Dynamics - North America and the Middle East maintain a competitive edge in ethylene production costs, primarily due to their access to low-cost ethane [30][44] - Europe and Japan are undergoing structural adjustments, with many facilities shutting down due to high operational costs and low demand [27][39] Capacity Expansion - From 2022 to 2030, Asia, particularly China and India, is expected to account for over 60% of the global ethylene capacity expansion, with China alone projected to reach 83.87 million tons per year by 2030 [3][15] - The report highlights key companies such as Baofeng Energy, Satellite Chemical, and China National Petroleum Corporation as leaders in coal and ethane-based ethylene production [3][4][5] Trade Dynamics - The global ethylene trade landscape is shifting, with North America and the Middle East leading in net exports, while Northeast Asia remains a major consumption area [45][46] - Ethylene is primarily traded in derivative forms due to high volatility and transportation costs associated with the monomer [46][48]