Report Title - Black Metal Weekly Report - Iron Ore [1] Report Date - September 16, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of iron ore has recovered this period, with a significant rebound in shipments and a decline in arrivals compared to the previous period. On the demand side, after the parade, blast furnaces resumed production, and the molten iron output returned to the level before September 3. Overall, both supply and demand increased, with limited overall contradictions and intensified long - short game. In terms of valuation, the recent continuous contraction of spot and futures steel profits per ton has an impact on the raw material fluctuation rhythm. Unilateral attention should be paid to the fluctuation range of 95 (756) - 105 (836) US dollars [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental and Conclusion - Price: Last week, the mainstream spot prices of iron ore rebounded, with weekly increases ranging from 2 - 15 yuan. As of September 15, the Platts 62% index closed at $105.5, down $0.2 week - on - week, equivalent to about 874 yuan in RMB at the exchange rate of 7.12. The optimal deliverable product is NM powder, with a latest quotation of about 785 yuan/ton and a converted warehouse receipt (factory warehouse) of about 811 yuan/ton [7]. - Inventory: The iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China increased compared to the previous period and was lower than the same period last year. As of now, the total inventory at 47 ports is 14,456.12 tons, an increase of 30 tons compared to the previous period, a decrease of 1,154 tons from the beginning of the year, and 1,584 tons lower than the inventory at the same period last year. It is predicted that the inventory at 47 ports may decrease in the next period [7]. - Supply - Shipments: The total global iron ore shipments this period were 3,573.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 816.9 tons. The total shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2,850.8 tons, an increase of 583.8 tons. Australian shipments were 1,981.6 tons, an increase of 202.0 tons, and the amount shipped to China was 1,736.7 tons, an increase of 244.5 tons. Brazilian shipments were 869.3 tons, an increase of 381.8 tons [8]. - Arrivals: From September 8 - 14, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 2,392.3 tons, a decrease of 180.6 tons compared to the previous period; the total arrivals at 45 ports were 2,362.3 tons, a decrease of 85.7 tons; and the total arrivals at six northern ports were 1,245.0 tons, a decrease of 75.0 tons [8]. - Demand - Molten iron output: The average daily molten iron output of 247 sample steel mills increased this week, reaching 240.55 tons/day, an increase of 11.71 tons/day compared to last week, a decrease of 4.22 tons/day from the beginning of the year, and an increase of 17.17 tons/day year - on - year. There were 25 new blast furnace复产 and 3 blast furnace overhauls this period [10]. - Profit: As of September 12, in the long - process spot market, the cash - inclusive cost of long - process rebar in East China was 3,135 yuan, with a point - to - point profit of about 54.75 yuan, and the long - process cash - inclusive profit of hot - rolled coils was about 164.75 yuan. In the electric - furnace market, the flat - rate electricity cost of electric furnaces in East China (according to Fubao's data) was about 3,312 yuan, and the off - peak electricity cost was about 3,185 yuan. The flat - rate electricity profit of rebar in East China was about - 262 yuan, and the off - peak electricity profit was about - 135 yuan [10]. 2. Data Combing - Iron ore warehouse receipt price: The optimal deliverable product is NM powder, with a converted warehouse receipt (factory warehouse) of about 811 yuan/ton. Other varieties also have corresponding chemical indicators, quality premiums, brand premiums, and converted warehouse receipt prices [16]. - Iron ore inter - delivery spread: As of September 15, the spread between iron ore 1 - 5 contracts closed at 21.5 (- 2.5) [19]. - Iron ore import profit: Not mentioned in the report - High - low grade spread: Not mentioned in the report - Premium index: As of September 11, the premium index for 62.5% lump ore was 0.1825 (+ 0.0005), and the premium index for 65% pellets was 16.6 (-) [29]. - Brand premium (discount) and inventory: Various brands such as Mac powder, PB powder, and Jinbuba powder have corresponding inventory trends and premium (discount) data in 15 ports [31]. - Steel mill sintered powder inventory: As of September 12, the inventory of imported sintered powder decreased by 70.7 tons compared to September 5, a decrease of 5.75%; the inventory of domestic sintered powder decreased by 0.7 tons, a decrease of 0.94%; and the average inventory days of imported ore decreased by 1.0 days, a decrease of 4.76% [34]. - Imported ore inventory and daily consumption of 247 steel mills: As of September 12, the imported ore inventory of steel mills increased by 53.18 tons compared to September 5, an increase of 0.59%; the daily consumption of imported ore increased by 15.98 tons, an increase of 5.69%; and the inventory - to - sales ratio of imported ore decreased by 1.53 days, a decrease of 4.80% [37]. - Port inventory and berthing: The total port inventory (45 ports), berthing ship numbers at 47 ports, and the inventory of Australian, Brazilian, and trade ores at ports all have corresponding data trends [40]. - Port inventory by ore type: As of September 12, the inventory of imported port lump ore increased by 42 tons compared to September 5, an increase of 2.68%; the inventory of pellet ore increased by 3 tons, an increase of 1.06%; the inventory of iron concentrate decreased by 30 tons, a decrease of 2.67%; and the inventory of coarse powder increased by 8 tons, an increase of 0.08% [43]. - Surcharge: The surcharge volume has corresponding data trends from 2020 - 2025 [46]. - Iron ore in - transit volume: The in - transit volume of iron ore from Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries to China has corresponding data trends [49]. - Iron ore import quantity: The import quantities of iron ore from the whole country, Australia, Brazil, South Africa, and other countries have corresponding data trends [52]. - Australian iron ore shipments: As of September 12, Australian shipments to China were 1,737 tons, an increase of 245 tons compared to September 5, an increase of 16.39%; the total Australian shipments were 1,982 tons, an increase of 202.1 tons, an increase of 11.36%; and the proportion of shipments to China increased from 83.86% to 87.64% [62]. - Brazilian iron ore shipments: As of September 12, Brazilian shipments to the world were 869 tons, an increase of 382 tons compared to September 5, an increase of 78.32% [67]. - Shipments of the four major mines: As of September 12, the shipments of Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, Vale, and FMG to China increased by 139 tons, 27 tons, 259 tons, and 72 tons respectively compared to September 5, with increases of 27.85%, 6.01%, 73.59%, and 21.89% respectively, and the total shipments increased by 497 tons, an increase of 30.47% [68]. - Iron ore arrivals: As of September 12, the arrivals at 45 ports were 0 tons, a decrease of 2,448 tons compared to September 5, a decrease of 100.0%; the arrivals at northern ports were 1,245 tons, a decrease of 75 tons, a decrease of 5.7% [75]. - Freight rates: The freight rates of iron ore from Brazil's Tubarao to Qingdao and from Western Australia to Qingdao have corresponding data trends from 2020 - 2025 [77]. - Domestic ore production (estimated): As of September 12, the output of iron concentrate from mines was 77.7 tons, an increase of 4.0 tons compared to September 5, an increase of 5.42%; the inventory of iron concentrate from mines was 35 tons, an increase of 1 ton, an increase of 2.84% [79]. - Steel mill powder daily consumption and steel mill capacity utilization: As of September 12, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.2%, an increase of 4.39 percentage points compared to September 5, an increase of 5.12%; the daily consumption of imported sintered powder was 62.2 tons, an increase of 9.84 tons, an increase of 18.80%; the daily consumption of domestic ore sintered powder was 9.2 tons, an increase of 1.50 tons, an increase of 19.43%; and the average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 240.6 tons, an increase of 11.71 tons, an increase of 5.12% [81]. - Pig iron production: The daily average pig iron production of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Iron and Steel Association has corresponding data trends from 2016 - 2025, and there are also year - on - year growth rates for 2024/2023 and 2025/2024 [87]. - Global pig iron production: The pig iron production of the EU 28 countries, Japan, South Korea, India, the world, and China has corresponding data trends from 2020 - 2025 [90]. - Global (excluding China) pig iron production: The pig iron production of regions outside China has corresponding data trends from 2017 - 2025, as well as month - on - month and year - on - year growth rates [95].
黑色金属周报：铁矿：供需双增，博弈加剧-20250916
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-09-16 11:21