化工日报：EG主港库存低位持稳-20250916

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - Low inventory limits the downside, but the advanced commissioning plans of Yulong and Ningxia Changyi's new plants dampen market sentiment [3] - In September, the EG balance sheet is slightly in equilibrium, and the main port inventory is expected to remain low, but the advanced commissioning plans of new plants suppress the market [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 4288 yuan/ton (+16 yuan/ton, +0.37% compared to the previous trading day), the EG spot price in the East China market was 4377 yuan/ton (-1 yuan/ton, -0.02% compared to the previous trading day), and the EG East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 102 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 1 yuan/ton) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 72 dollars/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 8 dollars/ton), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - to - EG was - 131 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 34 yuan/ton) [1] - The domestic ethylene glycol load remains high and stable, and there are still many supply losses overseas [2] International Price Difference - Not mentioned in the text Downstream Production, Sales and Operating Rate - Current demand is recovering slowly with insufficient order connection. It is expected that the polyester load will stabilize and increase slightly, but the increase may be limited. Pay attention to the time of concentrated order placement in the later period [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 46.5 tons (a month - on - month increase of 0.6 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 36.3 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 1.3 tons). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 8.5 tons, and the port inventory remained stable with a slight increase. The planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is 9.4 tons, with a neutral arrival volume [1] - In September, the main port inventory is expected to remain low, but the advanced commissioning plans of new plants suppress the market [2]