黑色商品日报-20250916

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with more obvious weakness on the demand side. It is expected that the short - term thread disk will mainly operate in a narrow range. The iron ore price is expected to show a high - level oscillating trend under the interweaving of multiple factors. Both coking coal and coke are expected to operate in a wide - range oscillation in the short term. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are expected to operate in an oscillating manner in the short term [1][3]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views 3.1.1 Rebar - The rebar futures market was strongly oscillating. The closing price of the rebar 2601 contract was 3136 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton or 0.29% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 65,900 lots in positions. Spot prices rose slightly, and trading volume recovered. From January to August, national fixed asset investment increased by 0.5% year - on - year, with real estate development investment down 12.9%, manufacturing investment up 5.1%, and infrastructure investment up 2.0%. The production of pig iron, crude steel, and steel from January to August was 579.07 million, 671.81 million, and 982.17 million tons respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of - 1.1%, - 2.8%, and 5.5%. In August, the production of pig iron, crude steel, and steel was 69.79 million, 77.37 million, and 122.77 million tons respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of 1.0%, - 0.7%, and 9.7%. The daily output of crude steel in August was 2.496 million tons, the lowest daily output in the same period since 2018, a 2.9% decrease from the previous month. It is expected that the short - term rebar disk will mainly operate in a narrow range [1]. 3.1.2 Iron Ore - The price of the main iron ore futures contract i2601 first fell and then rose, closing at 796 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan/ton or 0.4% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 360,000 lots and a reduction of 7,000 lots in positions. The market prices of mainstream port spot varieties were weakly operating. On the supply side, the shipments from Australia and Brazil increased. On the demand side, after the resumption of production from production restrictions, the molten iron output increased by 117,100 tons to 2.4055 million tons. The profitability rate of steel mills continued to decline. The inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports increased by 304,000 tons to 144.5612 million tons, and the steel mill inventory increased by 530,000 tons. It is expected that the iron ore price will show a high - level oscillating trend [1]. 3.1.3 Coking Coal - The coking coal futures market rose. The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1187.5 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton or 3.76%, with an increase of 33,039 lots in positions. In the spot market, the price of main coking raw coal in Shanxi Lvliang area increased by 35 yuan to 770 yuan/ton, and the Mongolian coal market was strongly operating. On the supply side, affected by safety accidents, the production recovery in some areas was slow, and market trading was still weak. On the demand side, the molten iron output returned to a high level, but after the second round of coke price cuts, the profit of coke enterprises was further compressed, and downstream acceptance of high - priced raw materials was not high. It is expected that the short - term coking coal disk will operate in a wide - range oscillation [1]. 3.1.4 Coke - The coke futures market rose. The closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1688.5 yuan/ton, up 63 yuan/ton or 3.88%, with a reduction of 122 lots in positions. In the spot market, the spot price of coke in ports rose. On the supply side, the purchase price of coke by mainstream steel mills in East and North China was lowered by 50 - 55 yuan/ton, and the second round of coke price cuts was fully implemented. The current coke supply was relatively loose. On the demand side, the resumption of production of steel mills drove the rapid recovery of molten iron output, but the performance of the finished product market was flat, and the inventory accumulation of finished products still existed. Some steel mills began to control the arrival rhythm. It is expected that the short - term coke disk will operate in a wide - range oscillation [1]. 3.1.5 Manganese Silicon - On Monday, the manganese silicon futures price oscillated strongly. The main contract was reported at 5906 yuan/ton, a 1.2% increase from the previous day, and the positions of the main contract increased by 2156 lots to 327,700 lots. The market prices of manganese silicon in various regions were 5600 - 5850 yuan/ton, and the price in Inner Mongolia increased by 30 yuan/ton. The overall trend of the black sector was strong, and the price center of manganese silicon futures moved up. The mainstream steel tender pricing has not been announced yet. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of manganese silicon was still at a relatively high level. On the demand side, the recent output of rebar was at a relatively low level, and the demand of sample steel mills for manganese silicon decreased for two consecutive weeks. The cost of manganese ore was relatively firm, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased for two consecutive weeks. It is expected that the short - term manganese silicon will mainly operate in an oscillating manner [3]. 3.1.6 Ferrosilicon - On Monday, the ferrosilicon futures price oscillated strongly. The main contract was reported at 5700 yuan/ton, a 1.42% increase from the previous day, and the positions of the main contract decreased by 4705 lots to 213,300 lots. The aggregated prices of ferrosilicon in various regions were about 5280 - 5330 yuan/ton, and the prices in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia increased by 20 yuan/ton and 30 yuan/ton respectively. The overall trend of the black sector was strong, and the price center of ferrosilicon futures moved up. On the supply side, the short - term output of ferrosilicon was difficult to significantly decrease. On the demand side, the mainstream steel tender showed an increase in quantity and a decrease in price, and the demand of sample steel mills for ferrosilicon decreased for two consecutive weeks. The cost of ferrosilicon was rising, and the inventory of 60 sample enterprises reached a new high in the same period in recent years. It is expected that the short - term ferrosilicon will be affected by the black sector and mainly operate in an oscillating manner [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - This part provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices of various black commodities such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, as well as data on profits and price differences between varieties [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - This part includes multiple charts showing the closing prices, basis, inter - period contract spreads, and inter - variety contract spreads of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, which can help analyze the price trends and relationships of different black commodities [6][17][25]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The black research team members include Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional qualifications in the black industry research field [53][54].