黑色金属日报-20250916

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for various products are all ★☆☆, indicating a bias towards a bullish or bearish trend but with limited operability on the trading floor [1]. Core View of the Report - Overall, the market sentiment has improved due to the repeated fermentation of the "anti-involution" concept, and the cost side provides strong support for prices. Different products in the steel and related industries show different trends and investment opportunities, with short - term rebounds expected in some products and high - level oscillations in others [1]. Summary by Product Steel - The steel futures market continued to rebound today. The apparent demand and production of rebar both declined, while inventories continued to accumulate. The demand for hot - rolled coils significantly improved, production increased, and inventories slightly decreased. The rapid resumption of blast furnaces led to a substantial increase in molten iron production, alleviating the negative feedback pressure. However, poor profit per ton of steel restricts further resumption of production. From August data, domestic demand remains weak, while steel exports remain high. The steel futures market is expected to continue the rebound in the short term [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market showed a strong oscillation today. On the supply side, global shipments increased significantly month - on - month, and domestic arrivals decreased slightly to near the annual average level, with port inventories increasing slightly recently. On the demand side, terminal demand rebounded slightly, molten iron production returned to a high level, and steel mills have pre - holiday inventory replenishment needs. With a warm domestic policy environment and strong expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut overseas, the market is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation in the short term [2]. Coke - Coke prices continued to rise during the day. The second round of price cuts for coking was fully implemented, with decent profits and an increase in daily coking production. Coke inventories increased overall, and traders' purchasing willingness was average. Due to high expectations of coking coal over - production inspections and "anti - involution", there are expectations of cost increases for coke. The coke futures market is affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, and short - term callback buying opportunities are recommended [3]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices continued to rise during the day. Due to high expectations of over - production inspections and "anti - involution", prices quickly rebounded above 1200. Coking coal mine production slightly increased, spot auction transactions weakened, and terminal inventories slightly decreased. Total coking coal inventories increased month - on - month, and production - end inventories slightly increased. Coking coal production disruptions have basically recovered, with little impact on inventories. Buying on dips is recommended in the short term [5]. Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese prices rose slightly during the day. On the demand side, molten iron production quickly recovered to over 240, with little impact from previous shutdowns. Weekly silicomanganese production continued to increase, and inventories did not accumulate. Manganese ore forward quotes increased slightly month - on - month, and spot ore prices were boosted. Manganese ore inventories increased slowly. The silicomanganese futures market is expected to follow the rebound of the black - series products, but the upside is limited by fundamentals [6]. Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices rose slightly during the day. On the demand side, molten iron production quickly recovered to over 240, with little impact from previous shutdowns. Export demand remained at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal decreased slightly month - on - month. Overall demand is acceptable. Ferrosilicon supply recovered to a high level, and market spot and futures demand was good, with on - balance - sheet inventories slightly decreasing. The ferrosilicon futures market is expected to follow the rebound of the black - series products, but the upside is limited by fundamentals [7].